Breaking Down the NBA’s Most Improved Player Race: Favorites, Trends, and Longshots
The NBA’s Most Improved Player (MIP) Award is one of the most intriguing honors in basketball. It’s not about comebacks or redemption arcs; it’s about players taking their game to the next level and having their best season yet. This award celebrates those who show significant development in a single year, and the competition is always fierce.
But don’t be fooled—winning this award isn’t as simple as it sounds. To even be eligible, players must appear in at least 65 games during the 2024-25 season. This ensures the award goes to someone who’s been consistent and impactful, not just a flash in the pan. So, who’s in the running this year? Let’s dive into the trends and top contenders for the 2024-25 MIP race.
Key Trends in the MIP Race
To predict who might take home the hardware, it helps to look at the trends from the past 20 seasons:
- Scoring matters: 24 of the last 25 MIP winners increased their scoring by at least 5.0 points per game (PPG). Additionally, 10 of the past 11 winners averaged 20.0 PPG during their MIP season.
- All-Star recognition: Five consecutive winners—and seven of the last eight—made the All-Star team the same year they won MIP.
- Playoff teams have an edge: 13 of the last 20 winners came from teams projected to make the playoffs. Furthermore, 11 of those 20 winners played for teams that improved their win total from the previous season.
- Experience counts: While this award used to favor second-year players, 12 of the last 16 winners were in their third or fourth year in the league.
With these trends in mind, let’s take a closer look at the top contenders and some intriguing longshots for this year’s MIP race.
Top Contenders
Jalen Williams, PF/SF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (+450)
Jalen Williams is making a strong case for MIP this season with significant growth across the board—PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, and BPG. With Chet Holmgren sidelined due to injury, Williams’ role has expanded even further. His versatility is a standout feature, as he’s not just a power forward or small forward but has also started at center. He’s an elite defender and is averaging 32.3 minutes per game (MPG). Expect the third-year player to continue filling up the box score.
What’s working in his favor: Williams is a key piece on a playoff-contending team. With Holmgren out, he’s now Oklahoma City’s second-best player behind MVP hopeful Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Earning an All-Star spot would further strengthen his MIP bid.
What’s working against him: Williams finished fourth in MIP voting last year, so he’ll need to improve on his current averages of 19.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 4.5 APG to stay in the race. The competition is fierce this season.
Jalen Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks (+650)
Jalen Johnson has emerged as one of the best young players in the league. After averaging just 5.6 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 2022-23, he followed it up with 16.0 PPG and 8.7 RPG last season. However, injuries limited him to 56 games, making him ineligible for MIP. This year, Johnson has been a force, averaging 19.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 1.1 BPG in 36.6 MPG. These numbers mark significant improvements from previous seasons.
What’s working in his favor: Johnson’s all-around stats put him on track to join an exclusive club. Only five players—Oscar Robertson, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Garnett, Domantas Sabonis, and Sidney Wicks—have averaged 18+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 5+ assists in a single season. Despite playing for a rebuilding Hawks team, hitting those marks could give him the edge for MIP.
What’s working against him: Hawks teammate Dyson Daniels is also making a case for MIP with strong defensive stats (3.4 SPG, 1.1 BPG). If Daniels maintains 4.5 stocks per game, he could surpass Michael Jordan’s historic 1988 season. This could split MIP votes between Daniels’ defense and Johnson’s offensive improvement.
Franz Wagner, SF/PF, Orlando Magic (+850)
Franz Wagner is making waves as one of the NBA’s most versatile players. He just recorded his fourth straight game with 25+ points—a career-best streak. It was also Wagner’s 13th career game with 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. Offensively skilled and defensively sharp, Orlando’s defensive rating is better with him on the floor. The only other team with a better defensive rating than Orlando is Oklahoma City. Wagner’s per-game averages improve year by year, making him a prime contender for this award.
What’s working in his favor: Paolo Banchero’s absence due to a torn right oblique has provided Wagner with an opportunity to showcase his basketball IQ and playmaking ability. His MPG has also increased significantly with Banchero out.
What’s working against him: Banchero’s return will reduce Wagner’s usage. While he can still thrive, it won’t be as easy to get the numbers necessary to beat out the others in this hotly contested race.
Long Shots to Consider
While the favorites are generating buzz, don’t sleep on these longshots:
- Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons (+1600): Cunningham is leading the Pistons’ surprising start this season, averaging 21.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 9.4 APG over the past 10 games. His versatility and leadership are turning heads.
- Norman Powell, SG/SF, Los Angeles Clippers (+1600): Powell has stepped up as the Clippers’ leading scorer with Kawhi Leonard out. He’s averaging 23.3 PPG in 33.5 MPG and thriving in a bigger role.
The race for Most Improved Player is heating up, and with so many deserving candidates, this year’s winner will have truly earned it. Who’s your pick?
Originally Written by: Unknown
