Jayson Tatum’s Achilles Injury: A Devastating Blow to the Celtics and the NBA
In a moment that sent shockwaves through the NBA, testing on Tuesday confirmed the worst fears for the Boston Celtics and their fans. Jayson Tatum, the team’s leading scorer and a three-time All-NBA first team pick, suffered a rupture of his right Achilles tendon during Monday’s loss to the New York Knicks. This injury not only sidelines him for the remainder of the postseason but also puts his availability for the 2025-26 season in jeopardy.
For the defending champions, Tatum’s injury is monumental. His role as a cornerstone of the Celtics’ success cannot be overstated. As the team faces a 3-1 deficit against the Knicks, the implications of his absence are profound, affecting both their current playoff run and their strategy for the upcoming season.
Let’s delve into how the Celtics might adapt without Tatum, the history of Achilles injuries in the NBA, and what this means for Boston’s future.
When Might We See Tatum Return?
The timeline for Tatum’s return is uncertain. No NBA player since Jose Juan Barea in 2019 has returned sooner than 10½ months after an Achilles rupture. This suggests that the Celtics should plan on Tatum missing the entire 2025-26 regular season. A postseason return is more realistic, but there’s little precedent for such a comeback.
Historically, postseason returns from season-long injuries are rare. Larry Krystkowiak of the Milwaukee Bucks is one of the few examples, returning from an ACL repair in 1991 to play three games. However, the stakes were not as high as they are for an All-NBA first teamer like Tatum.
When Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson suffered injuries in the 2019 NBA Finals, postseason returns were considered but never materialized. Durant opted not to join the Brooklyn Nets for the bubble restart in 2020, returning a year and a half after his Achilles rupture. Based on this history, Boston might need to approach the 2025-26 season as if Tatum won’t play at all, even in the playoffs. This dramatically alters the team’s strategy, which has seen them win 15 playoff series since drafting Tatum in 2018.
Second-Apron Squeeze
As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst recently detailed, the Celtics are entering a precarious financial situation. With Tatum’s supermax extension set to kick in next summer, Boston is more than $40 million over the 2025-26 luxury tax line. This doesn’t include veteran Al Horford, who will be an unrestricted free agent at age 39.
The looming tax bill and restrictions on teams exceeding the second luxury tax apron were already forcing difficult decisions. Tatum’s injury accelerates these challenges. Paying over $200 million in luxury taxes for a potential championship team is one thing, but doing so for a team with uncertain prospects is another.
Age is another factor. If Boston’s next title window shifts from 2026 to 2027, it affects decisions about veteran players like Jrue Holiday, who will be 36 by the 2026-27 season. The Celtics might consider trading Holiday to reduce payroll and get younger, though it would mean a defensive downgrade.
Conversely, Tatum’s absence could prevent Boston from trading Jaylen Brown. The financial challenge is having Brown and Tatum, who together make over 60% of the salary cap through 2028-29. Maintaining depth will be difficult with their salaries. In Tatum’s absence, Brown’s shot creation becomes crucial, as he and Tatum were the only Celtics rotation players assisted on less than 59% of their field goals this season.
Expectations for Tatum
Kevin Durant’s return will be the benchmark for Tatum. Despite suffering his Achilles injury at 30, three years older than Tatum, Durant returned as a dominant force and remains an All-Star six years later.
Durant’s example shows it’s possible to avoid a major performance drop after an Achilles rupture. The most likely impact for Tatum might be on his durability. Since being drafted, no one has played more NBA games than Tatum, and this season’s eight games missed due to injury were a career high.
When Tatum returns, he may be limited from playing back-to-back games and have his minutes monitored. This could hinder his chances of adding more All-NBA first-team appearances, even if his productivity remains high.
Multiskilled wings have generally fared well after Achilles injuries. Besides Durant, this group includes Klay Thompson and Wesley Matthews, who returned less than eight months after his injury in 2015 and played in the NBA through age 37.
There’s no guarantee Tatum will join this group rather than more cautionary examples like DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall. However, there’s no reason to consider an Achilles rupture the end of Tatum’s ability to play at a high level.
How Can the Celtics Come Back in This Series?
First, the Celtics need to overcome the shock of seeing their star player helped to the locker room in a wheelchair. Tatum’s injury was disheartening, but his teammates will have a couple of days to process it before Game 5 at home on Wednesday night.
Even before Tatum’s injury, the Celtics were in a huge hole after falling down 3-1 in the series. Historically, 3-1 comebacks have been more feasible for the higher seed, as Boston is. Still, teams have rallied to win 8% of the time in best-of-seven series since 1984, compared with just 1% for the lower seed.
Tatum was the biggest reason the Celtics were in Game 4, scoring 42 points in 40 minutes before his injury. In his absence, the Celtics must rely on a defense that held the Knicks to 184 points in Games 2 and 3. Keeping Jalen Brunson out of the paint should be a priority, as his 18 points in the paint on Monday nearly matched his total of 22 over the first three games.
New York had 64 points in the paint in Game 4, the third most by a team in any playoff game this season. The Celtics could replace Tatum by putting more size on the court, protecting the rim at the expense of their own shooting. If Boston can stifle the Knicks’ offense, there’s enough scoring for the Celtics to win three consecutive games and pull off an improbable comeback.
Nonetheless, losing the game and Tatum on Monday has taken Boston from having the best odds to win the Eastern Conference at ESPN BET to last among the four remaining teams.
Originally Written by: Kevin Pelton
