Introducing Net Points: A Revolutionary NBA Metric
In the ever-evolving world of basketball analytics, a new metric has emerged that promises to change the way we evaluate player performances. This metric, known as Net Points, is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of a player’s impact on the game by analyzing play-by-play data. It takes into account every rebound, shot, turnover, and free throw, assigning credit and blame to the players on the court based on the difficulty of their contributions to the team’s success or failure.
Let’s dive into some recent performances to see how Net Points can offer a fresh perspective on player evaluations. A week ago, Zach LaVine delivered a stunning performance, scoring 42 points in just 31 minutes during a Sacramento win. He shot an impressive 16 of 19 from the field, marking the second-most efficient 40-point game in Kings history. It was undoubtedly a remarkable game.
But how does this compare to Joel Embiid’s triple-double on February 4? Embiid scored 29 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and dished out 10 assists. However, he also had five turnovers and shot 12 of 23 from the field, with the 76ers being outscored by 12 points during his 36 minutes on the court. Was this a good game?
To answer this question, I conducted a survey among my X followers, and the results were intriguing. 61% of respondents considered Embiid’s performance to be so-so, 34% thought it was a good game, and only 5% rated it as great. While opinions vary, Net Points provides an objective evaluation. According to this metric, Embiid’s triple-double was worth minus-0.8, placing it firmly in the “so-so” range. This means he cost the Sixers about 1 point relative to an average player.
When we add up the Net Points for all the Sixers in that game, it equates to a plus-2, and they managed to beat the Dallas Mavericks 118-116. This is where Net Points shines, revealing insights that the traditional box score might miss. While Embiid’s basic numbers were impressive, Net Points captures the nuances of the game, including transition opportunities, matchups, help defense, and creating better shots for teammates.
Top Individual Performances of the Season
Now, let’s take a look at some of the standout individual performances of the season so far, as measured by Net Points:
- +19.9 total: +16.1 offense, +3.8 defense. Giannis Antetokounmpo went 21-of-34 with 59 points in an OT win on November 13.
- +19.7: +11.5, +8.2: Karl-Anthony Towns on December 19 had 32 points, 20 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 turnovers, and went 10-of-12 from the field.
- +17.9: +14.0, +3.9: Tyrese Haliburton on February 26 posted 33 points in 33 minutes on 12-of-15 shooting with 11 assists and 1 turnover, while the Pacers outscored the Raptors by 24.
- +16.8: +14.9, +1.9: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on February 5 had 50 points on 18-of-29 from the field, with 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover.
- +16.6: +15.5, +1.1: Jalen Brunson on January 12 with 44 points in blowout of Milwaukee, on 16-of-26 from the field, with 6 assists and 1 turnover.
- +16.1: +12.4, +3.7: Nikola Jokic on January 10 when he and Russell Westbrook each had a triple-double against Brooklyn.
Giannis’ 59-point game leads the way and is particularly amazing because he added nearly 20 Net Points to the Bucks in a game they won by seven; that means his teammates cost the team 13. Remember LaVine’s ultra-efficient 42-point performance? That was worth plus-15.4 Net Points, good enough for the 13th-best game this season.
Unveiling the Stories Behind the Numbers
Net Points is not just about individual performances; it can also reveal stories that the eye test might miss. For instance, it can identify why a team is stumbling or who is to blame. The Golden State Warriors‘ season is a prime example. They started the season 12-3, with their offense ranked sixth and their defense fourth. However, they struggled afterward, falling to 25-26 at the trade deadline and battling for a play-in spot. Their offense ranked 25th and their defense ranked 20th after the hot start. So, who was to blame for the drop-off?
Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, and Draymond Green were playing at All-Star levels with each having Net Points per 48 minutes over plus-3.0 to start the season. Then, Curry and Green fell to career-low levels. After a hot start, Andrew Wiggins dropped to about his average. Hield regressed to the point it wasn’t worth playing him.
The acquisition of Dennis Schroder earlier in the season was also a disaster, which is why the Warriors traded him at the deadline. Their most notable deadline move was, of course, acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Warriors have gone 8-2 in their past 10 games, with their offense and defense ranking third in the league. And Butler is playing at his stellar playoff form, posting an All-NBA-like plus-5.1 Net Points per 48 minutes.
Evaluating Trades and Predicting the Future
Net Points can also help evaluate trades, such as the blockbuster one between the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks. It’s early, and the sample size is small, but so far…
Lakers get:
G Luka Doncic, worth plus-17 Net Points through eight games
F Markieff Morris, worth minus-1 Net Point in three games
F Maxi Kleber, worth 0 and likely won’t play the rest of the season
Mavericks get:
C Anthony Davis, worth plus-7 in one game
G Max Christie, worth minus-9 Net Points through 12 games
In that Luka-to-the-Lakers deal, both teams are betting on the other guy’s big star. They were betting on how much Doncic and Davis would be available and how well they’d play. Net Points can show the strength of those bets. Through this year’s trade deadline, here is how many minutes, Net Points, and Net Points per 48 minutes each was worth over the past four years.
In production per minute, Doncic was ahead of Davis every season. In overall production, he was ahead of Davis in every season before this one. And Doncic is six years younger.
Net Points quantifies a player’s value, but it is not the only player metric on the internet. There are a lot of them, with names such as DARKO, EPM, LEBRON, and xRAPM — and those are the ones you can kind of pronounce. These are practical metrics, but they are predictive because they indicate how good a player will be in their next game.
Net Points explains the past, such as those box scores or the four-minute stretch by LeBron James against the Kings on October 26 (LeBron scored 16 points in four minutes, worth plus-8 Net Points). We want Net Points to get those things right. Then, we’ll build a predictive version that will help you avoid overreacting to one game.
Up to this point in the season, we have a Net Points leaderboard. It shows some familiar names and a few that are more surprising.
Identifying the Most Impactful Players of the Season
Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are way ahead here, and that is the common sentiment in the MVP race. But Jokic has a big lead over Gilgeous-Alexander in Net Points, and that is stunning. I believe metrics are good guides for voting on awards, but not the only factor. Metrics and human subjectivity are imperfect. Using that rationale, it’s fine to vote Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP.
But that’s not the only rationale. SGA led the Thunder to a better record than Jokic. Jokic has taken the Nuggets from average to good. SGA has taken Oklahoma City from good to great. It’s difficult to decide which is the greater accomplishment.
Alperen Sengun and Jarrett Allen are the surprises on this list. Allen has been a good player for years, according to this metric. His ability to finish at the rim and defend were obvious pluses in Net Points when Cleveland acquired him four years ago. Fellow Cavs Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell are in the top 10 in Net Points some days. Darius Garland is top 10 on offense, though his defense hurts him.
Sengun was not in this tier last season or the season before. His defensive numbers were very good to start this season, but have come down. He has been a top-30 player since mid-December.
How and Why Teams Win: OKC Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers Edition
Net Points primarily quantifies players’ performances, which directly affect team success. And, because it incorporates a lot of play-by-play, it can also explain why teams are successful.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the league’s best team in forcing turnovers and not committing them. They’re outscoring opponents by plus-12.6 points per game. What Net Points tells us is how much of that plus-12.6 scoring margin is associated with their turnover advantage. It looks at all the Net Points created from every turnover event and adds them to get plus-5.9 Net Points per game. Essentially, half of their average scoring margin comes from half-court turnovers.
That is not normal.
What is more normal is how the Cleveland Cavaliers are winning so many games — by shooting well and stopping opponents from doing the same. The Cavs’ offense gets a league-leading plus-6.4 Net Points per game from shooting 3s, and a league-leading plus-5.7 Net Points per game from shooting 2s. On defense, the Cavs give up minus-3.5 Net Points per game on 3s (bottom 10), but allow the league’s second-best mark at minus-0.5 Net Points per game on 2s. So, they’re getting plus-8.2 Net Points by shooting better than their opponents from the field.
That is more like championship-level production. That doesn’t mean Cleveland is more likely to win a title than Oklahoma City. We have the Basketball Power Index to address that better.
What this breakdown illustrates is that winning the 3-point battle — having more Net Points on offense than allowed on defense — is very strong in predicting who will win the game. Across the NBA, if a team “wins” the 3-point battle, it wins the game 72% of the time. That is higher than the 65% for winning the 2-point battle.
It is much higher than the 53% for winning the rebounding battle. Oklahoma City and Cleveland share that characteristic: OKC is the 27th-best rebounding team in the league by Net Points and Cleveland is 17th, going against the old saying that rebounding wins games.
Originally Written by: Dean Oliver
