Knicks’ Midseason Report: Offense Shines, Defense Struggles
Last season, the New York Knicks were a force to be reckoned with, winning 61.0% of their regular season games. They secured the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and pushed the Indiana Pacers to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Unfortunately, injuries and attrition took their toll, and the Knicks fell short of reaching the NBA Finals.
Fast forward to this offseason, and the Knicks have made significant changes to their starting lineup. They executed two blockbuster trades, bringing in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. These new additions joined forces with incumbents Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart.
Now that we’re halfway through the season, it’s time to assess what we’ve learned about this revamped Knicks squad. What can we expect from them for the rest of the regular season and playoffs? And how do their fantasy basketball prospects look moving forward? Let’s dive in.
At the 41-game mark, the Knicks boast a 26-15 record, translating to a 63.4% win percentage. This is a slight improvement over last season’s 50-win pace. However, the way they’re achieving these wins is quite different. The Knicks have transformed into an offensive juggernaut, boasting a 120.5 Offensive Rating, which ranks second in the NBA. On the flip side, their defense has been mediocre, with a 113.8 Defensive Rating, placing them 17th in the league. Last season, they were strong but not dominant on both ends, with the seventh-best ORTG (118.2 points per 100 possessions) and the 10th-best DRTG (113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Even a quick glance at these numbers reveals that the Knicks’ defense is performing similarly to last season. However, the league as a whole has improved defensively, making the Knicks’ defense appear weaker in comparison. Conversely, the Knicks’ offense has become significantly more efficient, even with better league-wide defense, indicating a substantial improvement relative to the league.
What’s Working
The Knicks have found a clear identity as a dominant offensive team, which raises their ceiling. Their current offense features two All-NBA caliber performers in Brunson (sixth in NBA MVP voting last season) and Towns (ninth-shortest MVP odds this season, per ESPNBET). These two players complement each other exceptionally well.
Towns is one of the best shooting big men in the NBA, excelling both inside (59.3 2P%) and outside (44.9 3P%) the arc. Brunson, on the other hand, is elite at creating offense off the dribble, both for himself (53.0 2P%, 38.5 3P%) and his teammates (7.6 APG vs 2.4 TO). Both players excel against 1-on-1 defense and thrive in the pick-and-roll/pop game, creating mismatches and generating easy looks for the entire team.
This offensive prowess is evident in the team’s 3-point shooting. All five Knicks starters are hitting between 1.3 and 2.3 3-pointers per game, with effective field goal percentages ranging from 54.5% to 61.7%. Brunson is the only starter creating his own 3-pointers, with only 46.7% of his 3-pointers assisted, while the other four starters are assisted on a high percentage of their 3-point makes. With Brunson as the primary creator and Towns as the elite finishing big man, the Knicks’ offense is challenging to defend.
What Isn’t Working
There’s no sugarcoating it—the Knicks’ defense has been a disappointment. On paper, the trio of Anunoby (eighth in All-Defensive Voting Shares in 2022-23), Bridges (second in 2021-22), and Hart (23rd in 2023-24) should have formed one of the best perimeter defensive trios in the NBA.
In practice, however, Anunoby is playing as an undersized power forward, a role that doesn’t suit his strengths. While Hart remains one of the best rebounding wings in the NBA, both he and Bridges have struggled more as cover defenders than in the past.
Part of the defensive struggles can be attributed to the fact that neither Brunson nor Towns are strong defenders for their positions. Opposing point guards can penetrate and break down the team defense more easily, and the lack of rim protection leaves the wing defenders vulnerable. The potential return of Mitchell Robinson, with his 1.9 BPG career average, could help address this issue. Robinson has missed the entire season with an ankle injury but is expected to be cleared for full practice in January. His return would provide the Knicks with a true interior defensive presence and allow them to play alongside KAT for added size against bigger opponents. Let’s not forget that KAT played power forward next to Rudy Gobert in Minnesota.
Fantasy Hoops Outlook
All five Knicks starters currently rank in the top-85 in the league in fantasy points per game (points leagues) and in the top-45 in the league in the ESPN Player Rater (category leagues). Towns leads them in both formats, making him the fantasy hoops King of New York, even though his ADP (14.0) was slightly behind teammate Brunson’s. Towns leads the league in rebounding, and his strong scoring, 3-point shooting, and efficient shooting percentages make him one of the most valuable fantasy basketball producers in the NBA.
While Brunson is second on the Knicks in fantasy points per game, the surprising Hart ranks third (37th in FP/G). His combination of strong rebounding, field goal percentage, assists, and steals has him ninth on the Player Rater. Considering Hart’s relatively low name recognition compared to his production, he is likely the best pound-for-pound fantasy hoops value on the Knicks and a player to target in trade talks.
Futures Angles and Bets to Make
Odds by ESPN BET
ESPN BET has set the Knicks’ regular season wins at 53.5. They are off the board to make the playoffs, +850 to win the Atlantic division, +550 to win the East, and +1200 to win the Championship.
- Over 53.5 wins: Assuming they stay relatively healthy, the Knicks are a solid bet to exceed 53.5 wins (even). They started the season slowly, winning only two of their first seven games, but have since gone 24-10, a 70.6% win rate that projects to an additional 29 wins over their last 41 games, or 55 wins overall. However, health is a legitimate concern given coach Tom Thibodeaux’s tendency to play his starters big minutes. All five Knicks starters have played at least 38 of their 41 games, averaging at least 34.7 MPG. There is a possibility the lineup could wear down, as they did during the playoffs last season.
- Knicks to win the East (+550): This would likely require their defense to improve significantly with Robinson’s return. If that happens, they would have a legitimate chance against both the East-leading Cavaliers and the defending champion Celtics in a seven-game series. The Knicks defeated the Cavaliers in the playoffs two seasons ago and have an offense capable of going toe-to-toe with the mighty Celtics.
Originally Written by: Andre Snellings
