The NBA’s Conference Semifinals: A Deep Dive into the Final Eight’s Path to Glory
As the NBA playoffs heat up, the conference semifinals mark a significant escalation in both stakes and the quality of competition. While the play-in teams, with the exception of the Golden State Warriors, weren’t expected to vie for the 2025 title, the remaining eight contenders all have a legitimate shot at the championship. Let’s dive into the dynamics of this thrilling stage of the playoffs.
In the opening days of the second round, we witnessed road teams pulling off stunning upsets against higher-seeded teams. The No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers, No. 2 Boston Celtics, and No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder all fell in their respective Game 1 matchups. With the ultimate prize now within reach, let’s explore what each team needs to do to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy this June. What strengths must they leverage? What weaknesses must they address? And what matchups should they exploit or avoid?
Here’s a breakdown of how each remaining team, sorted by title odds according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), can win the 2025 NBA championship.
Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 63.6%
- To reach NBA Finals: 50.6%
- To win 2025 title: 39.2%
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the statistical favorites to win it all, and for good reason. They set an NBA record for point differential (plus-12.9 per game) and are led by likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their defense is one of the best in NBA history. However, the path to the title might not be as straightforward as their regular-season dominance suggests. The Thunder went 2-2 against both the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, and 1-2 against the Golden State Warriors during the regular season. Their lack of playoff experience showed in a late-game meltdown against Denver in Game 1.
To maximize their championship odds, the Thunder need better performances from their stars. Gilgeous-Alexander is in a shooting slump, with a 45% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs, down from 57% in the regular season. His sidekicks, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, struggled in Game 1, with Williams shooting 5-for-20 and Holmgren scoring just 12 points while missing crucial free throws.
Oklahoma City must also improve on the boards. Despite adding Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency, Denver grabbed 21 offensive rebounds in Game 1. One clutch collapse doesn’t ruin their title chances, but they need to translate their potential into reality.
Indiana Pacers
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 77.9%
- To reach NBA Finals: 37.0%
- To win 2025 title: 12.8%
The Indiana Pacers have been playing like an elite team for months, finishing the regular season on a 34-14 run. They had the NBA’s sixth-best net rating and top-10 showings on both offense and defense during that span. In the playoffs, they’ve maintained their pace, dispatching the Bucks with ease and taking control of their second-round series with two wins on Cleveland’s home floor.
Indiana’s rise coincided with the return of key players Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. The Pacers’ starting lineup, featuring Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, boasts a plus-11.1 net rating in the regular season and a plus-18.2 in the playoffs.
Indiana’s core is a blend of complementary skills: shooting, playmaking, pace, and perimeter defense. Coach Rick Carlisle’s bench, featuring T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, provides additional scoring punch.
Most importantly, Indiana knows its identity, allowing it to dictate the tempo and disrupt opponents’ rhythms. With Haliburton orchestrating, the Pacers consistently generate good shots and minimize turnovers, ensuring a high offensive baseline every night. Their defense has also improved significantly compared to last season, making them a formidable contender.
Golden State Warriors
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 78.8%
- To reach NBA Finals: 25.9%
- To win 2025 title: 12.5%
The Golden State Warriors bring a wealth of championship experience to the table. With players like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney, along with coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors have the richest high-level experience in the playoffs. They rely on Curry and Jimmy Butler III, with contributions from Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.
The Warriors’ defense, led by the Butler-Green pairing, was the best in the league after the All-Star break. They easily handled the Rockets in the first round and the Timberwolves in Game 1. Looney’s contributions are crucial, especially against teams with size, and the Warriors’ schematic versatility allows them to make mid-series adjustments effectively.
Steve Kerr’s postseason management is another advantage. He knows how to navigate the playoffs as a journey rather than a series of disconnected games. The Warriors may not have the ceiling to cruise to a title, but they have the experience and strategic acumen to win 12 more games over the next six weeks.
Boston Celtics
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 46.6%
- To reach NBA Finals: 27.1%
- To win 2025 title: 12.0%
The Boston Celtics have maintained their core from last season’s championship run. With a rotation that hasn’t changed since their 16-3 playoff record in 2024, the Celtics enter every game with a mathematical advantage due to their prolific 3-point shooting. They were one of two teams, along with the Thunder, to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating this season.
Led by Jayson Tatum, who has elevated his game since winning a ring in 2024, the Celtics boast a collection of elite talent. Tatum’s scoring prowess was on full display in the first round against the Orlando Magic, where he scored 36, 37, and 35 points in the final three games.
Despite a Game 1 loss to the New York Knicks, Boston remains a favorite to reach the conference finals. Their poor shooting luck in Game 1 is unlikely to persist, and when their shooters find their rhythm, the Celtics will be a formidable force in their quest to repeat as champions.
Denver Nuggets
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 36.4%
- To reach NBA Finals: 19.7%
- To win 2025 title: 9.2%
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world, and the formula that delivered the Nuggets the 2023 championship still works. Jokic’s historic 40-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist effort in Game 1 against Oklahoma City showcased his brilliance. However, Jokic can’t do it all alone, and his supporting cast must step up for Denver to win its second title in three years.
Players like Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray have already made significant contributions, with Murray’s 43-point outburst in the first round being the best single-game performance this postseason. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll remains unguardable, producing a scorching 1.35 points per play this postseason.
Denver’s challenge lies in managing tired legs, as they have a shallow rotation and endured a tough seven-game series against the Clippers. However, their potential to torch the league’s best defense, as demonstrated in Game 1 against the Thunder, makes them a formidable contender.
New York Knicks
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 53.4%
- To reach NBA Finals: 23.2%
- To win 2025 title: 7.7%
The New York Knicks pulled off an improbable comeback win in Boston, but their path to a title remains challenging. The Celtics would have claimed Game 1 if not for poor shooting luck, and they swept the regular-season series. The Knicks struggled to outlast the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round, with a combined margin of victory of just 17 points.
Led by Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, the Knicks have shown resilience in close games. More clutch heroics from Brunson and some external luck could pave the way for a Knicks title. Injuries to key Celtics players could level the playing field, giving New York a chance to advance further.
Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 22.1%
- To reach NBA Finals: 12.7%
- To win 2025 title: 5.5%
The Cleveland Cavaliers’ magical season has taken a turn for the worse, with injuries and the Pacers posing significant challenges. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter have missed games, and Tyrese Haliburton sank a game-winning 3-pointer to put the Cavaliers in a 2-0 hole.
To get back on track, Cleveland needs to get healthy. The short-handed Cavaliers led for most of Game 2, thanks to Donovan Mitchell‘s 48 points, but that’s not sustainable. Cleveland needs Mobley’s size, Garland’s playmaking, and Hunter’s shooting to have a chance at a comeback.
Other factors favor Cleveland, such as their potential to shoot better in upcoming games. If the injured stars return and the shot luck evens out, the Cavaliers have a shot to overcome their deficit, even with the Pacers hosting Games 3 and 4.
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 21.2%
- To reach NBA Finals: 3.8%
- To win 2025 title: 1.2%
The Minnesota Timberwolves entered the playoffs with a 17-4 record in their final 21 regular-season games and upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. Their stifling defense held a team with LeBron James and Luka Doncic below 100 points in three of five games.
With Anthony Edwards ascending to superstardom, Julius Randle playing his best playoff basketball, and a deep bench, Minnesota is a formidable opponent. Despite losing to a Curry-less Warriors squad in Game 1, the Timberwolves have the potential to advance further if they improve their shooting from deep.
With confidence and athleticism, the Timberwolves have the defensive chops to challenge any opponent in a seven-game series. They took a significant leap last season, reaching the conference finals, and they might know how to pace themselves better now, making them a dangerous team in the playoffs.
Originally Written by: Zach Kram
