When Will Juan Soto Sign? MLB Experts Weigh In
With the MLB winter meetings just days away, the baseball world is buzzing with one question: Where will Juan Soto land? The 26-year-old superstar outfielder, fresh off helping the New York Yankees reach the World Series, is poised to sign what could be the richest contract in baseball history. As teams and executives gather in Dallas starting Sunday, Soto’s decision looms large, with the Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Toronto Blue Jays all vying for his services.
To get a clearer picture of what’s ahead, we asked MLB experts to share their thoughts on when Soto will sign, whether he’ll stay in the Bronx or head elsewhere, and what ripple effects his decision will have on the offseason. Here’s what they had to say:
When will Juan Soto make his decision?
Jorge Castillo: The news will likely trickle out before the winter meetings officially begin, but I expect it to become official on Monday, the first day of the meetings, with a splashy news conference on Tuesday.
Kiley McDaniel: I agree with Jorge. It seems like the timing will align with the opening of the winter meetings.
David Schoenfield: Late Monday seems like the sweet spot. That would allow Scott Boras, Soto’s agent, to bask in the spotlight and set the stage for the rest of the offseason, including deals for his other top clients like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, and Alex Bregman.
Alden Gonzalez: Ultimately, the timing is up to Soto himself. However, indications earlier this week suggest we’re nearing the end of his free agency, with a decision expected as early as this weekend. Whether it happens Saturday, Sunday, or spills into Monday, it’s almost certain Soto will have chosen his team before the winter meetings conclude on Thursday. This won’t be another Bryce Harper-style saga.
Can the Yankees keep Soto?
Castillo: I’m less confident than I was at the start of the offseason. It feels like this will come down to the Yankees and Mets, but Steve Cohen, the Mets’ owner and the wealthiest in baseball, seems determined to outbid everyone. That makes the Mets the favorites in my eyes, though the Yankees still have a shot.
McDaniel: I’d put the odds at 55% Mets, 35% Yankees, and 10% other. The Mets seem unlikely to let money be the reason they miss out on Soto, while the Yankees might hesitate if the Mets’ offer is significantly higher.
Schoenfield: The Yankees have a history of keeping their stars, but it’s not a guarantee. They re-signed Aaron Judge and kept legends like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, but they let Robinson Cano walk in 2014. Judge likely took a slight discount to stay in New York, but I don’t see Soto doing the same. My confidence in the Yankees retaining him is low.
Gonzalez: Many insiders expect Soto to end up with the Mets, which is wild when you think about it. The Yankees don’t typically lose players like this, especially not to the Mets. But Cohen’s deep pockets are a game-changer. That said, Soto’s first season in the Bronx was a dream (aside from that fifth inning), and the Yankees are one of the biggest brands in sports. I’m not counting them out just yet.
If not the Yankees, then who?
- Castillo: The Mets. They want him badly and have the money to make it happen.
- McDaniel: Also the Mets. Beyond them, the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are in the mix, but I’d rank them in that order of likelihood.
- Schoenfield: The Mets are the clear frontrunners if the Yankees don’t retain Soto. They need a young superstar to build around, and Soto fits the bill perfectly.
- Gonzalez: While the Mets are the most likely alternative, don’t sleep on the Red Sox. They’ve reportedly made a competitive offer north of $600 million and have a fellow Dominican star in Rafael Devers.
How much will Soto’s contract be worth?
Castillo: My guess is 13 years, $650 million, which would set records for both average annual value and present-day value. Rumors of $700 million are swirling, but that might require deferrals.
McDaniel: I’d project around $630 million, though there’s a chance Boras and Soto push for $700 million with deferrals.
Schoenfield: $700 million is a staggering number, but Soto’s age and talent make it plausible. The last comparable free agent was Alex Rodriguez in 2000.
Gonzalez: I expect a 15-year deal worth over $700 million, with deferrals to lower the average annual value for tax purposes. Boras will undoubtedly tout it as the biggest contract in baseball history.
What happens after Soto signs?
Castillo: The focus will shift to top starting pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. Teams that miss out on Soto will likely pivot to pitching.
McDaniel: Boras’ other clients, including pitchers like Sean Manaea and Max Scherzer, could sign quickly. Position players like Pete Alonso and Willy Adames will also see their markets heat up.
Schoenfield: Alonso could be the next big domino to fall, especially if the Yankees or Mets miss out on Soto.
Gonzalez: Adames is a name to watch, especially if he’s open to playing third base. He could be a key target for teams that lose out on Soto.
Originally Written by: Buster Olney
