The Playbook, Inning 9: Mastering the 2025 fantasy baseball player pool

Mastering the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Player Pool: Insights and Strategies

Welcome to the final edition of the Playbook, where we dive deep into the world of fantasy baseball. If you’re a seasoned player or just starting out, understanding the player pool is crucial to your success. We’ve covered the basics, from salary cap strategy to building a cheat sheet, and even provided in-season trade and free agency tips. But the heart of fantasy baseball lies in knowing the players themselves.

In this edition, I’ll share insights from my personal playbook, a comprehensive file I update annually with notes on hundreds of players. This file includes injury reports, statistical nuggets, and interesting facts that aid in decision-making. It’s the foundation for my player rankings and cheat sheets.

Let’s explore some standout players as we gear up for the spring action:

• Bobby Witt Jr.: A unique talent, Witt Jr. is the only player in the 10-year history of Statcast data to achieve at least 10% Barrel and 30% sprint-speed rates. He ranks in the 92nd percentile for Barrel and 100th for sprint-speed, making him the first player with multiple 30/30 seasons before turning 25.
• Aaron Judge: Coming off a historic season with a 223 OPS-plus, Judge scored 630 fantasy points. However, regression and past injuries are concerns. From 2000-23, hitters with 600-plus fantasy points averaged 21.4 fewer games and only 507.4 points the following season. Judge himself missed significant time in 2023 due to injuries, finishing with 340 fantasy points.
• Corbin Carroll: A first-round pick last year, Carroll struggled initially in 2024 but rebounded with a .256/.348/.522 line, 20 home runs, and 26 stolen bases. His performance in the latter part of the season is a better indicator of his potential.
• Kyle Tucker: Tucker’s injury last season was a fluke, and he remains a strong fantasy option. He was on track for a third consecutive 25/25 campaign before his injury and performed well upon his return.
• Julio Rodriguez: Despite an injury-marred 2024, Rodriguez achieved a third consecutive 20/20 campaign. His strong finish to the season suggests a return to form in 2025.
• Yordan Alvarez: Alvarez’s elite hitting skills are often overlooked. He and Juan Soto are the only hitters with at least a 15% Barrel and at most a 17.5% strikeout rate over the past three seasons.
• Jackson Merrill: Merrill’s power skills shone through in 2024, setting a record for a player 21 years or younger with five game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning or later.
• Manny Machado: Machado’s consistent production is impressive, with nine consecutive seasons of at least 28 home runs, making him one of only 16 players in history with such a streak.
• Rafael Devers: Devers’ shoulder injury affected his performance late in 2024. Monitoring his health during spring training is crucial for fantasy managers.
• Anthony Santander: Santander’s 44 home runs in 2024 exceeded expectations. A more realistic projection for 2025 is around 32 home runs.
• Adley Rutschman: Rutschman’s production dipped after a hand injury in June 2024. His health will be a key factor in his 2025 performance.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Despite a challenging U.S. debut, Yamamoto showed flashes of brilliance, ranking ninth in ERA and 11th in strikeout rate before his injury.
• Jarren Duran: Duran’s defensive improvements earned him a regular role, leading to a breakout 2024 season. Expect continued success in 2025.
• Jurickson Profar: Profar’s career-best 158 games and 668 plate appearances contributed to his 2024 rebound. However, regression is likely in 2025.
• Devin Williams: Williams’ back injury didn’t hinder his performance post-activation, with a 43.2% strikeout rate and 14 saves from July 28 onward.
• Marcus Semien: Semien’s role as the Rangers’ leadoff hitter is crucial to his fantasy value. Any changes in lineup plans could impact his performance.
• Matt Olson: Olson’s post-All-Star break performance is noteworthy, with 74 home runs over the last four years. Consider targeting him in trades.
• George Kirby: Kirby’s pinpoint control and elite stuff make him a high-floor fantasy pitching target. He’s in impressive company with Greg Maddux and Cliff Lee.
• Vinnie Pasquantino: Pasquantino’s elite hitting skills make him an undervalued player, with 24 homers in the minors in 2022 and 28 combined in 2023.
• Willy Adames: Adames’ 224 plate appearances with runners in scoring position led the league in 2024. Expect regression in RBI and SB categories in 2025.
• Isaac Paredes: Paredes’ power is significant, with 71 home runs over the last four seasons. His move to the Astros could enhance his fantasy value.
• Mason Miller: Miller’s impressive rookie season included 25 saves, 100 strikeouts, and a sub-2.50 ERA. He has the potential to be a top closer in 2025.
• Sonny Gray: Gray’s 2024 season was a career year, with a personal-best 5.8% walk rate and three pitches generating at least a 30% whiff rate.
• Ryan Walker: Walker’s late-season performance as a closer for the Giants makes him a top-10 fantasy closer candidate for 2025.
• Hunter Greene: Greene’s potential is evident, with 416 fantasy points over a 158-game span. His 29.3% whiff rate ranks among the best.
• Brandon Pfaadt: Pfaadt’s 1.11 ERA-FIP differential suggests unluckiness in 2024, making him a potential bargain in 2025.
• Jacob deGrom: Despite injury risks, deGrom’s excellence is undeniable, with 91.5% of his starts resulting in double-digit fantasy points over the last five seasons.
• Elly De La Cruz: De La Cruz’s strikeout issues shouldn’t overshadow his potential growth. His improved selectivity at the plate is promising.
• Spencer Schwellenbach: Schwellenbach’s increased workload in 2024 is a concern, but his potential as a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher remains.
• Yusei Kikuchi: Kikuchi’s pitch selection changes with the Astros led to improved performance. The Angels should continue this approach.
• James Wood: Wood’s contact quality in 2024 suggests significant offensive potential. Watch for changes in his swing path this spring.
• Shea Langeliers: Langeliers’ improved in-zone contact rate makes him a potential bargain backstop, with 534 plate appearances in 2024.

As we prepare for the 2025 fantasy baseball season, these insights and strategies will help you navigate the player pool and make informed decisions. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the season unfolds.