Hunter Brown’s Meteoric Rise: A Fantasy Baseball Revelation
Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Let’s dive into the fascinating journey of Houston Astros RHP Hunter Brown. In his rookie season of 2023, Brown posted a 5.09 ERA, lost 13 games, allowed more hits than innings pitched, and served up 26 home runs. It was a tough start, but things have taken a dramatic turn. Last season, despite a rocky beginning with a nine-run first inning at Kansas City in his third start, Brown’s ERA stood at 7.71 through nine starts, and there was talk of him being sent back to the minors. Fantasy managers, understandably, moved on.
Don’t be surprised… if Brown finishes 2025 as the No. 1 pitcher in fantasy
Yes, things are certainly going better these days for the overpowering Brown, but things had already changed for the 2019 fifth-round pick out of Wayne State last May. Perhaps fantasy managers didn’t notice, thanks to his bloated season numbers, but Brown learned a new sinker to help him deal with left-handed hitters, and now he throws it even harder (and 21.2% of the time). Brown is universally rostered, of course, but that doesn’t seem like enough attention.
Let’s put this into proper, statistical perspective.
- Paul Skenes: 27 SP, 13-5, 191 K, 2.02 ERA, 0.91 WHIP (NL Rookie of the Year)
- Hunter Brown: 28 SP, 14-6, 178 K, 2.07 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
- Tarik Skubal: 28 SP, 15-6, 202 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP (AL Cy Young award)
In other words, it feels like predicting Brown to be one of the top pitchers in the sport moving forward is hardly outrageous. Brown is throwing everything harder than he did last season, including his four-seam fastball, now averaging 97.2 mph. He is 4-1 with a 1.22 ERA (1.84 FIP) and an 0.84 WHIP after six quality starts and only behind Texas Rangers RHP Nathan Eovaldi and Boston Red Sox LHP Garrett Crochet in ESPN fantasy points (both of them have made seven starts). Brown’s seventh outing comes on Saturday against the lowly Chicago White Sox. It figures to go quite well.
Another reason why Brown appears to be special is his 50.6% ground ball rate. It is rare for hurlers to both pile on the strikeouts and induce ground balls at a high rate. Typically, strikeout pitchers induce fly balls and hope they stay in the ballpark. Entering Wednesday, just five qualified starters posted both a better strikeout and ground ball rate than Brown: Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Miami Marlins RHP Max Meyer, New York Mets RHP Clay Holmes, San Francisco Giants RHP Logan Webb and injured Seattle Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert). Brown induced ground balls at a 52.4% rate in 2023, and he struck out 26.8% of hitters. Greatness loomed. Greatness has arrived.
At this point, Brown should be the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award, with Crochet and New York Yankees LHP Max Fried also in contention. I worry about Crochet making 30-plus starts. I don’t worry about Brown and would surely target him in trades. I don’t see why, for fantasy purposes, he doesn’t rank right behind Skenes, Skubal and Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler.
Don’t be surprised… if Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara doesn’t get traded this season
Meanwhile, the 2022 NL Cy Young award winner will enter his next outing against the Dodgers with an 8.31 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP, coming off a rough outing against this same juggernaut in which he walked five and permitted seven runs in 2 2/3 innings. Alcantara missed last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the big narrative surrounding his return was that he would pitch well for four months and welcome a trade to a contender.
Perhaps the franchise’s costliest player still winds up somewhere else, but he must perform better in order to facilitate interest. Alcantara has 17 walks versus 19 strikeouts and one quality start in six chances.
Fantasy managers in ESPN’s shallow leagues have begun moving on, with Alcantara now down to 60% rostered, which seems sensible, but we must assume the veteran recaptures his control at some point. After Monday’s rematch with the mighty Dodgers, Alcantara is lined up to face the White Sox, then the Tampa Bay Rays and formidable Chicago Cubs at home. Alcantara boasts a 3.01 career ERA at Miami’s spacious ballpark over 70 starts. When he throws more strikes, the ERA will improve. The question is, will he throw more strikes? Fantasy managers want him with a contender. It may not happen.
Don’t be surprised… if Arizona Diamondbacks 3B Eugenio Suarez ends up a top-50 fantasy hitter
Suarez has long been a valuable fantasy option thanks to his longball prowess. He ranks sixth in home runs since the start of the 2019 season (when he bashed 49 of them) and he has reached 30 home runs five times, albeit for three different franchises. Suarez hits baseballs hard and at a high angle. What he doesn’t do so well is make contact. Nobody has more strikeouts since the start of 2019.
We covet power in fantasy baseball, regardless of format, but are the home runs worth it in standard points formats? Entering Thursday, nobody has hit more home runs this season. Suarez is tied with Yankees OF Aaron Judge and Mariners C Cal Raleigh with 10. Suarez launched four home runs in a weekend loss to the Atlanta Braves. While he is still swinging and missing, his 33 strikeouts are eclipsed by 32 other hitters. It is bad, just not “leading the league” bad (and he has led the league in whiffs three times).
Only one player hit more than 40 home runs in a season with a final batting average on the wrong side of .200. That was Phillies OF Kyle Schwarber in 2023, when he hit .197 while slugging 47 home runs. Schwarber was a valuable fantasy option in roto leagues and, thanks to drawing myriad walks, also in points formats. Three other players reached 35 home runs in a season while hitting worse than .205 (Adam Dunn, Joey Gallo, Dave Kingman). Suarez is not on that list, but he made a good run at it in 2021, hitting .198 for the Cincinnati Reds with 31 home runs. Suarez enters Thursday hitting .200.
Despite the low batting average, Suarez still ranks sixth at his position in ESPN fantasy points, tied with San Diego Padres 3B Manny Machado, and among the top 50 for all hitters. That’s not so bad. Few expected Suarez to be a top-50 hitter this season, so why is he rostered in 58% of ESPN leagues (up 13% for the past week)? Well, hitting four home runs gets noticed. I submit that Suarez, if he can hit 35 home runs with his current walk and strikeout rates, may remain a top-50 hitter and is thus underrated based on his roster percentage, even if he hits only .200. I am intrigued.
Originally Written by: Eric Karabell
