Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Stock Watch: Shelby Miller for Saves?
Last Wednesday night, the Arizona Diamondbacks found themselves in a bit of a pickle at New York’s Citi Field. Their right-handed pitcher, Justin Martinez, started the ninth inning with a comfortable three-run lead. But, as baseball often goes, things took a turn. After giving up a home run, issuing a couple of walks, and showing a noticeable drop in his fastball velocity, Martinez was pulled from the game. Enter RHP Ryan Thompson, who, despite his modest 90 mph sidearm fastball, managed to seal the win. The plot thickened when news broke that Martinez needed imaging for his shoulder, and with LHP A.J. Puk already sidelined for months due to elbow issues, the Diamondbacks had to rethink their bullpen strategy. Thompson and RHP Kevin Ginkel seemed like the logical choices for future saves.
But baseball is full of surprises! Enter RHP Shelby Miller. Once a top fantasy starting pitcher and traded for SS Dansby Swanson, Miller is now with his sixth franchise in five seasons. He got the call for the ninth inning on Thursday and, with just eight pitches, secured his fourth career save (all since 2023). Miller had already shown promise this season with five holds in his first 12 appearances, not allowing a single run and boasting increased fastball velocity with more than a strikeout per inning. So, perhaps we shouldn’t have been too surprised by his performance. He might just be the one to save many more wins for the Diamondbacks.
While Miller isn’t the last man standing in the Arizona bullpen, Thompson’s lack of velocity and Ginkel’s early-season shoulder issues, along with his recent struggles, make Miller a compelling option. LHP Jalen Beeks did save a wild, extra-inning win at Philadelphia, but that was only after Miller blew the save in the ninth. Beeks seems unlikely to get more chances, especially since Miller just allowed his first runs of the season on Sunday. With Puk not returning soon and Martinez’s status uncertain, someone has to step up as the closer.
Miller is striking out 29.8% of hitters, which, while not league-leading, is impressive for him. He’s back to relying on a splitter that helped him achieve a 1.71 ERA (42 IP) with the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers. Last season with the Detroit Tigers, Miller averaged 93.5 mph with his fastball, using it 60% of the time, and a hard slider 20% of the time. He’s mostly ditched the slider, and his fastball velocity is up to 94.5 mph, tying a career best.
At 34, Miller appeared in a career-high 51 games last season, staying healthy for about two-thirds of the season, and pitched in high-leverage situations. He went 6-8 with seven blown saves. The Diamondbacks are shaping up to be a solid playoff contender, and losing Puk and Martinez is a significant setback. The timeline for their return is uncertain.
It might seem unlikely that Miller can stay healthy and perform well enough to close for an extended period, but if you’re looking for Arizona’s closer this week, it’s Miller.
Stock Rising
- Emilio Pagan, Cincinnati Reds: Pagan continues as the primary closer, a role that seems more secure now that the erratic Alexis Diaz is back at Triple-A Louisville due to his inability to consistently throw strikes. Pagan, a 33-year-old journeyman, has saved double-digit games just once in his eight seasons, but he now seems more likely to save Reds wins for the next five months than Diaz. This is reflected in ESPN standard leagues, where Pagan has surpassed Diaz in popularity. While Pagan is prone to giving up home runs and his 3.98 FIP is more indicative of his performance than his 2.35 ERA, he should continue earning saves.
- Luke Weaver, New York Yankees: We previously discussed “proven closer” Devin Williams, suggesting that his struggles were due to BABIP and bad luck, and that things would improve. While they still might, Monday was not a good sign. Williams loaded the bases against the San Diego Padres with a hit and two walks, and Weaver relieved him, allowing all the inherited runners to score. Weaver even allowed one of his own runners to score, raising his ERA to 0.59. While it’s unlikely that Williams will continue to struggle with command, those seeking saves should consider adding Weaver. It’s concerning that his average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.7 mph to 94 mph, but aside from Monday, he has been effective.
- Zachary Agnos, Colorado Rockies: Recommending a Rockies pitcher is rarely wise, especially with the team seemingly intent on losing more games than last season’s Chicago White Sox. However, we can’t ignore that Agnos saved their past two wins, and every save matters. Agnos, a 24-year-old right-hander, closed games in the minors with effective run prevention and strikeout rates. He hasn’t allowed a run or a walk in 7⅓ innings over six appearances for Colorado, but he has struck out only one of 26 batters faced. This is not good and seems unsustainable for success, whether in Denver’s altitude or a pitcher’s park. RHP Seth Halvorsen, a popular preseason sleeper, saved Colorado’s March 29 win but has struggled since. Add Agnos at your own risk. Last year’s White Sox lost 121 games and totaled 21 saves.
Stock Falling
- Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers: Megill hasn’t been great, with a 3.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, but it’s not entirely his fault that he’s had only four save opportunities in five weeks. The Brewers have saves in only five of their 18 wins, with only the White Sox having fewer saves. Things looked promising for Monday night with a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth against the Houston Astros, but Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers both drove in runs, and Megill, ranked outside the top 200 relievers in terms of batters faced, didn’t even warm up. There’s a luck component here, but fantasy managers don’t care, as he’s down to just 36.6% rostered in ESPN standard leagues. Can we say for certain that Megill will pick up the pace in saves moving forward? Not really. These things don’t have to even out. Megill is a serviceable mid-tier closer, worthy of being on more rosters, but these aren’t the same Brewers as last season, so there may not be 25 more saves coming.
- Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Angels: Jansen investors couldn’t complain about his April performance. He pitched eight near-perfect times in March/April, with a Blutarsky-level (0.00) ERA and saved six wins. Jansen, the active MLB leader in saves and fourth all-time, felt safe to rely on. Then, in his first outing of May, in a 1-1 game with the Tigers, he allowed three ninth-inning home runs and six runs overall. How are we feeling now? Jansen earned a three-pitch (two-out) save the next day, but we know he won’t be perfect the rest of this season. The last season in which his final ERA was on the good side of 3.00 was in 2021. Does he have 20 more saves in him? Yeah, probably, because the Angels, with their brutal 7.02 relief pitcher ERA, don’t have much else to compete with him, and they must win some games. Just get past that one terrible outing and hope there’s not a second one on the horizon.
- Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves: Iglesias ranks fourth among active pitchers with 413 saves, including a drama-free outing on Sunday night against the Dodgers, as he whiffed three of four hitters, but there’s something to keep an eye on here. Iglesias has already allowed five home runs, one more than all last season (69⅓ IP), and he has a long history of allowing fly balls that fly over outfield fences. In fact, Iglesias has allowed double-digit home runs as a reliever in three separate seasons. This season feels like he’ll make it four, but as with Jansen, there’s little risk of a role change. The other Iglesias numbers/metrics look fine. He’s not losing his role to Pierce Johnson or Dylan Lee. Future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel does lurk at Triple-A Gwinnett, building up velocity for a likely May promotion, but he isn’t “prime Kimbrel” anymore. Iglesias won’t keep the closer role allowing five homers a month, though, so we probably shouldn’t dismiss any possibilities.
Originally Written by: Eric Karabell
