Exploring the Intricacies of the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline: Opportunists, Adders, and Dealers

Exploring the Intricacies of the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline: Opportunists, Adders, and Dealers

As we approach the Major League Baseball trade deadline, teams are traditionally divided into two distinct groups: those looking to acquire talent and those willing to trade it away. However, the landscape has shifted since the introduction of a third wild-card team for each league in 2022, expanding the playoff field to 12 teams. This change has given rise to a new category of teams: the opportunists.

These opportunistic clubs find themselves on the fringe of contention, aiming to exploit a thin trade market by setting high asking prices for some of their players. They hope that a desperate contender will bite, allowing them to maximize value.

In this evolving trade market, we have the Adders, the Dealers, and the Opportunists. Let’s delve into the various factors that will shape this year’s July 31 deadline, based on insights from executives around the league.

1. A Surge in Opportunists

The Milwaukee Brewers are hovering around .500 in a highly competitive National League. Even if they remain within striking distance of the division lead in July, their hopes may be dimmed if the Chicago Cubs continue their strong start. With the NL packed with playoff-caliber teams like the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves in the East, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Arizona Diamondbacks in the West, Milwaukee’s chances of securing a wild-card spot are slim. According to Fangraphs, the Brewers have a 13% chance of taking the NL Central and only a 5.3% chance of earning a wild-card berth.

This situation could lead the Brewers to follow the path of the Tampa Bay Rays from last year’s trade deadline. The Rays capitalized on a market with few dealers, trading players like Freddy Peralta, who has been one of the league’s best starters this year. Peralta’s affordable $8 million salary and team option for next season make him an attractive asset. If the Orioles acquired him, he would become their ace, while for the Yankees, he could be a reliable presence behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. If Peralta stays healthy, his value will never be higher than it is now.

The Rays were the opportunists of last summer, flipping Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners and trading Isaac Paredes to the Cubs, even though they were just 1½ games behind for the third wild card on the last Sunday of July. Tampa Bay didn’t go into full sell mode; instead, they saw a stark trade market and capitalized.

It’s possible, though not certain, that the Brewers will choose this path. Owner Mark Attanasio is known for his competitive nature and values making the playoffs. Some rival executives doubt Milwaukee would consider trading Peralta if they remain within range of the Cubs, managed by former Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell.

For teams stuck amid the pack of contenders, it’s worth considering:

• St. Louis Cardinals: They’re on a winning streak and have communicated to other teams that they might keep their tradable players, even if they aren’t front-runners, in what is the last season of John Mozeliak’s tenure as head of baseball operations.

• Minnesota Twins: They could dangle Byron Buxton, their dynamic and oft-injured center fielder, into trade conversations. Buxton is healthy, playing well, and under contract for the next three seasons at $15.1 million per year.

• Toronto Blue Jays: With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed to anchor their team, they could explore shaping a future around him and weigh offers for players like Chris Bassitt.

One executive working for a contender doesn’t believe the list of opportunists will be long. “Usually, what they ask for is unrealistic,” he said. “They’ll ask for your four best prospects, and you say no, and they move on and keep the player.”

2. The Mediocrity of the American League

The general mediocrity of the American League could greatly reduce its number of dealers. The Chicago White Sox are rebuilding and open for business, but the front office of any other team in the AL could convince itself that a playoff bid is possible, given the lack of standout teams.

The Baltimore Orioles might be the best example of this phenomenon. Despite a disastrous start to the season, with a rotation that has been pummeled regularly, it’s hard to imagine the Orioles surrendering early. Their recent success and roster of young position players make them unlikely to part with talent at the deadline, even if they have a losing record.

3. Limited Talent Among Potential Subtractors

The teams already viewed as potential subtractors might not have the talent contenders want. Clubs like the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, and White Sox don’t have much to offer in the eyes of rival evaluators. Other teams have monitored Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but both are struggling early in the season. Alcantara has an 8.42 ERA in seven starts since his return from elbow surgery, while Robert’s early slash line is .186/.293/.326, which doesn’t boost other teams’ interest or the leverage of the White Sox.

4. A Thin Market for Outfielders

The market for outfielders is expected to be very thin. Typically, the upcoming free agent class helps define most of the players who could be traded before the deadline, but in the outfield, the options beyond Kyle Tucker are limited.

Opportunists could take advantage of this soft outfield market and get value if they’re willing to trade outfielders under team control beyond this season. For example, the Twins could set a solid price for Buxton, and the Jays would likely draw interest for Daulton Varsho, an elite defender who won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season.

5. Scarcity of Good Starting Pitchers

Very few good starting pitchers are expected to be available. If the Cardinals decide to deal players, right-hander Erick Fedde, who has a 3.86 ERA this season, could draw some interest. Fellow right-handed starter Sonny Gray is a three-time All-Star, but his contract is very backloaded, with $35 million owed in 2026. The last time he was traded to a contender midseason, it did not go well.

6. The Possibility of a Nolan Arenado Trade

A Nolan Arenado trade could still be possible. Conditions are emerging to foster this possibility if Arenado waives his no-trade clause and if the Cardinals are willing to deal him. Normally, it’s not easy to move a position player with money attached at midseason, but contenders could be interested in acquiring the eight-time All-Star third baseman. The Cubs haven’t found a solution at third base, and the Yankees will soon try DJ LeMahieu in their ongoing attempt to fill the position. The Los Angeles Dodgers waited last season for Max Muncy to turn around a slow start, and he eventually did; this year, they’re waiting again.

Arenado, who killed a possible trade to the Houston Astros last winter, is owed about $24 million for the rest of this year, $27 million in 2026 ($5 million paid by the Rockies), and $15 million in 2027.