Dodgers the favorites? The next Darvish … or Clemens? What we know as we await Roki Sasaki’s decision.

Happy Roki Sasaki Week: The MLB’s Most Coveted Pitcher

It’s an exciting time for baseball fans as we celebrate what can only be described as “Happy Roki Sasaki Week!” The buzz around this 23-year-old Japanese pitching sensation has been palpable ever since he announced his intention to join Major League Baseball at the start of the 2024-25 offseason. With his unique blend of talent, youth, and the enticing terms of his contract, Sasaki has quickly become the most sought-after pitcher available this winter.

The 2025 international free agent signing period is set to open on January 15, and with Sasaki’s posting window closing on January 23, we could soon discover where this young star will land, possibly as early as Wednesday. Sasaki’s decision to enter the majors before turning 25 means he’s limited to a minor league deal, with a signing bonus from a team’s international bonus pool, capped at just over $7.5 million. This makes him an affordable option for every team, a rarity for a player of his caliber.

As we eagerly await Sasaki’s decision, we turned to our MLB experts to understand what makes him such a standout player, which major league pitchers he might remind us of, and which teams are in the running to sign him.

What Makes Sasaki Such a Coveted Free Agent?

Bradford Doolittle: Sasaki is young, accomplished, and possesses measurable tools that might make him baseball’s top prospect right now. Unlike many prospects, he’s already proven himself in a high-level league and can seamlessly transition into a big league rotation. The only limitation is his current workload threshold, but with all his team control seasons intact, there’s no risk in signing him. Sasaki’s eagerness to join MLB, even at the expense of maximum earnings, speaks volumes about his ambition.

Buster Olney: As we’ve seen with players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, excellence at a young age is invaluable. Sasaki, at just 23, is expected to be a high-ceiling talent, offering years of control at a bargain price.

Kiley McDaniel: An agent described Sasaki’s potential nine-figure deal as a testament to the value of youth. Teams are increasingly favoring younger rosters, avoiding long-term deals with older players. Sasaki represents a unique opportunity for teams to secure a young star during his peak years, making him a true unicorn in the free agent market.

David Schoenfield: Entering his age-23 season, Sasaki has the potential to be the best starter in baseball. In four years in Japan, he boasts a 2.02 ERA, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Standing at 6-foot-3 with athleticism and a fastball that reaches 102 mph, he’s comparable to top pitching prospects like Stephen Strasburg and Paul Skenes, but with professional success already under his belt.

Which Current or Former MLB Pitcher Does He Remind You Of?

Schoenfield: Sasaki’s power fastball/splitter combo brings to mind MLB greats like Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. His splitter, with a 57% whiff rate in Japan, would rank second in MLB, just behind Fernando Cruz.

Doolittle: While no single pitcher perfectly compares, Sasaki’s splitter is reminiscent of Logan Gilbert’s, with its low spin rate. His heavy, hard pitches are akin to Kevin Brown’s, though with a different fastball. Sasaki’s uniqueness is what makes him so exciting.

McDaniel: Sasaki’s arm speed and hype are similar to Hunter Greene’s at the same age. His standout splitter has parallels with former NPB pitchers and U.S.-born players like Clemens and Schilling. His overall package is comparable to Paul Skenes’, though Sasaki needs to refine his command and develop additional pitches.

Buster Olney: Sasaki’s build and athleticism remind me of Yu Darvish. Like Darvish, Sasaki seems capable of making necessary adjustments, potentially even mimicking other pitchers’ deliveries.

Are There Any Concerns About How His Game Will Translate from Japan to MLB?

McDaniel: Sasaki’s fastball shape and velocity regressed last season, and he may need to add more pitches. These issues can be addressed with the right pitching development team. Expect glimpses of his potential in 2025, with a more consistent performance by 2026.

Olney: Eduardo Perez would be the expert on potential pitch-tipping issues, as seen with Yamamoto. However, Sasaki’s splitter might be so effective that it won’t matter if batters know it’s coming.

Doolittle: The different ball in MLB could affect his pitch measurements, but his World Baseball Classic performance suggests he can adjust. Durability is a concern, given his limited innings and recent velocity drop, but his contract terms mitigate this risk.

Schoenfield: Like all starters, health and durability are concerns. Sasaki has yet to exceed 20 starts and 129 innings in a season. He’ll also need to adjust to facing more power hitters in MLB.

Are the Dodgers the Team to Beat as His Decision Approaches?

Doolittle: They always are.

McDaniel: While the Dodgers are the favorites, Sasaki’s decision-making process remains largely unknown. We have clues, but nothing definitive.

Olney: The Dodgers have a reputation for landing top players, thanks to their financial resources. They’ll continue to be a dominant force both on and off the field.

Schoenfield: I believe Sasaki will choose a different path, opting for a team without Ohtani and Yamamoto.

Which Other Teams Have the Best Chance of Landing Him?

• McDaniel: The Padres, led by GM A.J. Preller, are seen as the second-most-likely destination. Sasaki could transform their franchise. Other potential teams include the Giants, Mariners, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Rangers.
• Doolittle: The Mets stand out, offering a strong pitching environment and a chance for sustained contention. Their pitching lab in Port Saint Lucie is a significant draw.
• Olney: Sasaki’s willingness to defy conventional wisdom makes the Padres an intriguing option, with their favorable weather and Yu Darvish’s presence.
• Schoenfield: If Sasaki prioritizes development, Seattle is an ideal choice. The Mariners have a track record of keeping young starters healthy and offer a great pitcher’s park.