Dodgers the favorites? The next Darvish … or Clemens? What we know as we await Roki Sasaki’s decision.

Happy Roki Sasaki Week!

It’s an exciting time in the baseball world as we celebrate what can only be described as “Roki Sasaki Week.” The buzz around this young phenom has been palpable ever since he announced his intention to make the leap to Major League Baseball at the start of the 2024-25 offseason. At just 23 years old, Sasaki has quickly become the most sought-after pitcher available this winter, thanks to his unique blend of talent, youth, and the enticing terms of his contract.

With the 2025 international free agent signing period kicking off on January 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closing on January 23, the baseball world is on the edge of its seat. We could find out where Sasaki is headed as soon as Wednesday. The anticipation is building, and for good reason.

Because Sasaki decided to come to the majors before his 25th birthday, he is limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus coming from a team’s international bonus pool, which is capped at just over $7.5 million. This makes him a rare free agent star that every team can afford to sign, adding to the intrigue and excitement surrounding his decision.

As we eagerly await the announcement of Sasaki’s new home, we turned to our MLB experts to understand what makes him such a hot commodity, which major league pitchers he reminds us of, and which teams are in the best position to land him.

What makes Sasaki such a coveted free agent?

• Bradford Doolittle: Sasaki is young, accomplished, and possesses measurable tools that might make him baseball’s top prospect right now. He’s not a prospect in the traditional sense, where there’s a question of whether he’ll reach his ceiling. Instead, he’s already been successful in a high-level league and can seamlessly transition into a big league rotation. The only thing holding back Sasaki’s 2025 projection is a limited workload threshold. With his full collection of team control seasons intact, there’s no risk in signing him. As good as he is now, he has room to grow in terms of his arsenal and physical development. It’s rare to see such a perfect alignment of factors, especially considering Sasaki’s eagerness to make the jump, even if it means making max earnings a secondary factor.
• Buster Olney: As we’ve seen with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto — and even going back to Alex Rodriguez — excellence at a young age is everything. Sasaki is expected to be a high-ceiling talent at just 23, and the team that lands him will have years of control while paying him relative pennies.
• Kiley McDaniel: An agent described Sasaki’s potential nine-figure deal to me this winter, emphasizing that “age is a hack.” Rosters are getting younger, and teams have more money to spend but are hesitant to offer long-term deals to older players. They generally seek short-term free agent deals or trades for players with a year or two of control. Long-term deals are generally acceptable to many teams only when they can land a standout young star still in his peak years. Sasaki could be under team control for his entire peak as a bona fide ace, at a price every team can afford: a true unicorn of an opportunity for all 30 teams.
• David Schoenfield: Entering his age-23 season, Sasaki has the potential to be the best starter in baseball. In four years in Japan, he has a 2.02 ERA, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He has hit 102 mph and stands 6-foot-3 with athleticism. You could argue that he’s on par with Stephen Strasburg or Paul Skenes as a pitching prospect, except he has already dominated as a professional.

Which current or former MLB pitcher does he remind you of on the mound?

• Schoenfield: With his power fastball/splitter combo, I think of two former MLB greats: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. There are similarities to Shohei Ohtani as well, although Ohtani gradually reduced his splitter usage. In Japan in 2024, Sasaki induced a 57% whiff rate on his splitter, which would have ranked second in MLB behind Reds (now Yankees) reliever Fernando Cruz.
• Doolittle: I don’t know if there’s any one guy. The splitter reminds me of the one Logan Gilbert throws, with a spin rate so low it’s almost eerie to watch in slow motion. The heavy, hard stuff he offers is reminiscent of Kevin Brown, albeit with a different fastball. The most exciting thing about Sasaki is that it’s hard to call him the next so-and-so. He’s his own entity, and novelty is a rare and wonderful thing in sports these days.
• McDaniel: There isn’t a perfect comp, and Sasaki is still evolving as a pitcher. I’ll point out some players with similar qualities. Hunter Greene had a similar combination of arm speed and hype at the same age, along with some questions about his fastball shape and breaking ball quality. Sasaki’s standout splitter has several comps to former NPB pitchers but only a few U.S.-born players, such as Clemens and Schilling. The total package (power fastball, slider, and splitter-ish offspeed pitch) is similar to Paul Skenes’, though Sasaki’s command and fourth and fifth pitch are areas he’ll need to address to truly match Skenes’ MLB debut.
• Buster Olney: He reminds me of Yu Darvish, with his build and rangy athleticism. He seems like he’ll have the ability to make adjustments as needed. Darvish is known for mimicking the deliveries of other pitchers, and watching Sasaki move, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had the same gift.

Are there any concerns about how his game will translate from Japan to MLB?

• McDaniel: Sasaki’s fastball shape and velocity regressed last season, his slider velocity also tailed off, and he likely needs to add a fourth and maybe fifth pitch. His execution within the strike zone could be improved. These are all manageable issues that can be addressed in the first half of 2025, provided Sasaki chooses a strong pitching development club. Some mechanical adjustments and mental cues could do a lot of the heavy lifting, as these issues can be interrelated. I expect to see glimpses of Sasaki’s potential in 2025, with the first dominating string of five or six starts in a row likely coming in 2026.
• Olney: We really need our colleague Eduardo Perez to weigh in here, as he’d be the one to tell us if Sasaki has any blatant tells, such as pitch-tipping. That’s what Yamamoto experienced in his first months with the Dodgers. However, Sasaki’s stuff might be so good that it doesn’t matter. His splitter seems to be so effective that it won’t be hit even if the batter knows it’s coming.
• Doolittle: The different ball means we don’t know exactly how the measurements on his pitches will change, but that’s not a major concern. He looked great in the World Baseball Classic, which offers a nice preview of that adjustment. The real concern is durability. He has never thrown a lot of innings, his best pitch is a splitter, and his velocity was down last season. These issues would be more concerning if he were getting a Yamamoto-like contract, but he’s not. I’ve seen his splitter carry an 80-grade, and when you match that with a triple-digit fastball that moves and a track record of plus command, health is the only thing to worry about.
• Schoenfield: The same concerns apply to every starter: health and durability. He has topped out at 20 starts and 129 innings in Japan, back in 2022. His fastball velocity was down a bit in 2024 as he missed time with a torn oblique and shoulder fatigue. He’ll also have to adjust to facing more power hitters than he did in Japan.

Are the Dodgers the team to beat as his decision approaches?

• Doolittle: They always are.
• McDaniel: They are the most likely landing spot and have been seen that way for a while, but don’t underestimate how little we truly know about Sasaki’s process of eliminating and ultimately choosing a club. We have some clues and potential leans, but we don’t truly know very much right now.
• Olney: Sure, because they seemingly land every player they want, with a bottomless pit of money. The Dodgers will be the team to beat for years, both on and off the field.
• Schoenfield: I’ll say no. I’m betting on Sasaki wanting to forge his own path and signing with a team that doesn’t already have Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Which other teams do you think have the best chance of landing him?

• McDaniel: The Padres, led by their ultra-aggressive GM A.J. Preller, are perceived as the second-most-likely landing spot behind the Dodgers, and San Diego clearly needs Sasaki more: He would change the outlook for the whole franchise. Beyond that, we’re mostly guessing from teams we know he has met with that seem to have a good environment for Sasaki to develop and compete in meaningful games: the Giants, Mariners, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Rangers seem to come up the most, but I can’t even say that’s a complete list of teams getting a long look.
• Doolittle: For me, the Mets stand out. Sasaki and his representation have been pretty opaque when it comes to offering glimpses of his thinking, which has led to a lot of reading between the lines. It’s such a rare thing for a player of this caliber to be able to choose any team he wants with money barely being a part of the equation. So who knows? The Mets offer a good pitching environment, a strong possibility of sustained contention, and a budding pitching development program highlighted by the pitching lab they built in Port Saint Lucie. Why be another Dodger?
• Olney: It’s pretty evident that Sasaki is not afraid to ignore conventional wisdom, in the same way Ohtani did when he arrived — he passed up many, many tens of millions of dollars by pushing to get to the majors now, rather than just waiting. With that in mind, I think the Padres will be the most intriguing alternative to the Dodgers, because of the weather, Darvish’s presence, and the chance to play against the best, in the same division.
• Schoenfield: If Sasaki is primarily concerned with his own development as a pitcher, is there a better place than Seattle? Unlike the Dodgers, the Mariners have kept their young starters healthy. They also play in a great pitcher’s park, they play on the West Coast, and it’s not like Seattle doesn’t have a chance to win. But we haven’t heard much about the Mariners being in the running.