MLB Free Agency: The Final Stretch and Bold Predictions
As the calendar inches closer to spring training, the MLB free agency period is heating up with some significant moves already made. With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, and Anthony Santander off the board, the MLB free agency is entering its final stages. However, there’s still plenty of action expected before teams report for spring training.
Fans and analysts alike are eagerly speculating where the top remaining free agents, such as Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, will land. Will there be more blockbuster trades? And what about the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Will they reach an extension to prevent the star from hitting free agency after the 2025 season?
We turned to our MLB experts for their bold predictions on how this thrilling winter will conclude.
Free Agency
Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.
Alonso, a cherished homegrown talent in Queens, is still a free agent. The Mets, with their financial flexibility, could benefit from another right-handed power hitter. A reunion seems almost inevitable. Both parties are reportedly open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, making it hard to imagine Alonso signing elsewhere.
While the Mets have been spending elsewhere, acquiring players like Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter, Alonso’s power-hitting prowess since his 2019 debut is undeniable. Pairing him with Juan Soto could make him even more formidable. Despite Alonso’s defensive limitations and age, his home run capabilities make him a valuable asset for the Mets.
The Mets have had a productive offseason, but the competition is fierce with teams like the Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, and the San Diego Padres all vying for National League dominance. While negotiations may have been rocky, rebuilding bridges for a deal is not out of the question.
David Schoenfield: Alex Bregman to … the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t secure the big deal he desires, the Dodgers might be an unexpected fit. With Max Muncy becoming a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts, and Hyeseong Kim projecting as more of a utility infielder, Bregman could fill a crucial role. He could transition between second and third in 2025 and replace Muncy in 2026. Financially, the Dodgers can manage this, with $49.5 million coming off the books after this season.
Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.
There are numerous reasons this move makes sense, despite the positional fit issue with the addition of Gleyber Torres. The Tigers have the payroll flexibility to add Bregman, and his versatility offers various lineup configurations. Bregman would provide veteran leadership for a young team entering a new winning phase. His history with manager A.J. Hinch adds to the appeal. Bregman needs a new home, and Detroit seems like a logical choice.
Trades
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.
Just months ago, the Padres had the Dodgers on the brink in the NL Division Series. Since then, Padres GM A.J. Preller has watched the Dodgers not only defeat his well-rounded team but also win the World Series and sign key players, including Sasaki. Meanwhile, Preller has yet to make significant additions to his roster.
That won’t last. With the free agent pool dwindling and financial constraints in San Diego, expect Preller to orchestrate a major trade before spring training. The Padres have gaps in their rotation and lineup, and players like Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez, and Jake Cronenworth are potential trade targets. Preller’s inactivity won’t continue.
Jesse Rogers: The Boston Red Sox will trade for Nolan Arenado.
After unsuccessful attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox will pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals face pressure with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis isn’t right anymore, and the Cardinals are willing to cover part of Arenado’s salary for quality prospects. Boston can provide that.
Eric Karabell: Arenado will be traded to the Seattle Mariners.
The Cardinals are ready to move on from Arenado to make room for Nolan Gorman at third base. While rumors have linked Arenado to the Red Sox and Blue Jays, the Mariners have been quiet. However, with the Cardinals eager to offload Arenado’s contract, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto might find it hard to resist. Despite Arenado’s recent struggles, the Mariners could benefit from his presence in their lineup.
Vlad Jr.’s Future in Toronto
Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.
February 18 marks Toronto’s first full-squad workout and the deadline for extension talks with Vlad Jr. Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year after a stellar 2024 season. The Blue Jays will offer him a $400 million extension, but he will reject it, opting to explore free agency instead.
Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.
Predicting a deal is challenging, but Toronto needs to make a significant move. With Shohei Ohtani, Soto, and Sasaki not joining the team, extending Vlad Jr. is crucial. Waiting increases the risk of another team outbidding Toronto next winter. The starting point for negotiations should be Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension, adjusted for inflation. It’s a move the Jays need to make soon.
Off-field Drama
Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.
Last year, uniform quality became a hot topic among players. This year, the focus will shift to the Athletics playing in a minor league park in Sacramento. With limited capacity and high summer temperatures, players will voice their concerns, and the issue will persist throughout the season. Like the uniform controversy, it will be seen as a disgrace.
Originally Written by: ESPN
