Blue Jays’ Indecision with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: A Costly Gamble

Blue Jays’ Indecision with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: A Costly Gamble

In the world of baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays’ handling of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has become a textbook example of how indecision can lead to a precarious situation. As the Roman philosopher Cicero once said, “More is lost by indecision than wrong decision.” This sentiment rings true for the Blue Jays, who now find themselves in a difficult position with Guerrero holding all the leverage.

Despite the challenges, Guerrero remains a Blue Jay, with one season left before he reaches free agency. This gives the team a final opportunity to secure a future that currently seems uncertain. The Blue Jays should consider meeting with Guerrero, acknowledging past missteps, and making amends in the negotiation process.

Last week, the deadline set by Guerrero for a contract extension passed without a deal. Assuming Guerrero isn’t demanding a contract comparable to Juan Soto’s $765 million deal, the Blue Jays should reconsider their stance and agree to terms they previously rejected.

Allowing Guerrero to reach free agency is a puzzling move, given the team’s history of indecision regarding his career and contract. The Blue Jays have repeatedly delayed making a firm decision on Guerrero, and now they must face the consequences. The question remains whether the cost will be Guerrero’s departure or his retention.

Lessons from the Past: The Angels and Ohtani

The Blue Jays’ current predicament is reminiscent of the Los Angeles Angels’ handling of Shohei Ohtani’s impending free agency. The Angels, who went 73-89 the season before Ohtani’s contract expired, chose to retain him in hopes of making a playoff run. Similarly, the Blue Jays finished 74-88 in 2024 and aim to contend for a playoff spot this year with Guerrero.

With a rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays have potential. If Daulton Varsho recovers from rotator cuff surgery, Bo Bichette bounces back, and Andres Gimenez continues his elite defense, the team could be strong up the middle. Additionally, if Jeff Hoffman’s physical issues don’t hinder him, he could be a reliable closer.

However, the American League East is expected to be highly competitive this year. The New York Yankees are the defending AL champions, the Boston Red Sox have made significant improvements, the Baltimore Orioles boast a talented young core, and the Tampa Bay Rays consistently exceed expectations. The Blue Jays could find themselves finishing fifth once again.

The Cost of Waiting

This year, the Blue Jays are making a last-ditch effort to contend rather than rebuild, further delaying Guerrero’s status. If the team struggles by July, they might consider trading him. However, with his impending free agency, they may only receive half of his potential value. If they hold onto him and he leaves for another team, they would receive minimal draft pick compensation for a homegrown star.

Guerrero’s journey with the Blue Jays began when he signed with the team in 2015 for $3.9 million. Despite delaying his promotion to the big leagues in 2019, Guerrero showcased his talent by hitting 15 home runs and displaying impressive bat-to-ball skills. In his second full season, he hit 48 home runs and finished second in the AL MVP race.

However, his performance declined in 2022 and 2023, raising concerns about his conditioning. The Blue Jays had opportunities to secure a long-term deal with Guerrero, similar to the Kansas City Royals with Bobby Witt Jr. and the Cleveland Guardians with Jose Ramirez. Yet, the Blue Jays’ front office, known for not re-signing its own players, hesitated.

Guerrero’s Resurgence and Missed Opportunities

After a slow start last season, Guerrero rebounded significantly. From May 27 to July 30, he batted .321, with as many extra-base hits as strikeouts. This resurgence provided another pivotal moment for the Blue Jays. In July 2024, Toronto faced a decision similar to the Angels with Ohtani in 2022: either sign Guerrero to a long-term deal or trade him at his peak value.

Instead, the Blue Jays waited, just as they did with Ohtani. Guerrero’s performance improved further in the last two months of the season, finishing with a .323 average and a .940 OPS, earning a Silver Slugger and finishing sixth in the MVP race. Despite having the entire offseason to make a decision, the Blue Jays’ front office remained indecisive.

The Soto Factor and Guerrero’s Future

As Juan Soto entered free agency, the Blue Jays had a choice: secure Guerrero before the market shifted or trade him. Yet again, they waited. The Blue Jays even pursued Soto, competing against the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. Despite their efforts, the Blue Jays’ participation seemed doomed from the start.

With Guerrero, the Blue Jays have a unique advantage. Unlike with Ohtani and Soto, there is no question of Guerrero’s willingness to play in Toronto. He has spent his entire career with the Blue Jays and expressed a desire to continue. Guerrero has a specific “take-down number,” which the Blue Jays are aware of.

For a team in need of a franchise face, knowing Guerrero’s desired contract terms is invaluable. The Blue Jays should seize this opportunity and agree to his terms today.