What to Watch as the PGA Championship Heats Up
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — As the second round of the PGA Championship wraps up, the buzz around the course is palpable. While the chatter about mud balls that dominated the first round has subsided, the leaderboard remains as diverse and unpredictable as ever. The tournament is shaping up to be a thrilling ride, with some players making significant moves and others struggling to keep up.
Among the surprises, 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas has managed to hold his ground, now leading the pack with a 54-hole lead. But the real headline is world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who shot 3 under, positioning himself perfectly to chase his third major title.
Scheffler shared his thoughts, saying, “I think most of me is just glad to be close to the lead. If you’re going to play a 72-hole golf tournament, there’s going to be days and stretches of golf where you’re not swinging it your best. Over the course of a tournament this long and on a major championship setup, there’s going to be some bumps in the road. It’s all about how you respond to those. I did a good job of responding to those mistakes today and keeping myself in the tournament.”
As the weekend approaches, Scheffler remains the favorite to claim the Wanamaker Trophy. Here’s what to keep an eye on as the tournament progresses.
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Jhonattan Vegas: Can He Go the Distance?
Schlabach: “Johnny Vegas” might not be the fan-favorite winner, but his journey is nothing short of remarkable. Starting as a top junior player in Venezuela, he moved to Houston in 2004 when Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to convert urban golf courses into public housing. Arriving in the U.S. with limited English and a bag of worn clubs, Vegas earned a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning pro, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before clinching his first PGA Tour win at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Since then, he’s won three more times, most recently at the 3M Open in July.
Vegas admitted to a restless night before Friday’s round, likely due to the pressure of leading a major for the first time. He’ll face another sleepless night with a 2-shot lead before the third round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open, and this is only his third start in the big four since then.
A double-bogey 6 on the 18th hole marred an otherwise solid second round for Vegas. He finished 1-under 70, maintaining a two-stroke lead. After gaining almost four strokes on the field putting in the first round, he cooled down in the second, losing nearly one stroke. However, his tee-to-green play remained exceptional.
I’d be stunned if Vegas is a wire-to-wire winner of the PGA Championship.
Uggetti: Data Golf gives Vegas a 9.4% chance to win. Despite a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend, Vegas is only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% chance, three shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% chance, five shots back) round out the top three.
Vegas’s ability to hang on in the second round and shoot under par is impressive. However, if I were handicapping his actual chances, I’d lean toward 5%, if not less.
Vegas commented, “I feel like my game is very complete, but I just haven’t been able to put it all together in a major. I think I’ve been patient enough to not really get too down on myself for not playing well at majors. It’s just kind of one of those things that you’ve just got to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play good here. Unfortunately, it’s taking me a little bit longer than usual, but I’m glad that I’m in this position right now.”
If Vegas ends up raising the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it will be one of the most improbable major wins since Jimmy Walker did it at the PGA in 2017. Perhaps even more unlikely.
Who Could Still Win from Outside the Top 10?
Schlabach: I picked DeChambeau to win before the tournament started, and he’s still within striking distance at 3 under. The LIV Golf League captain bounced back from an even-par 71 in the first round to post a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is tied for 17th, five strokes behind Vegas.
DeChambeau is hitting the ball a long way at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting, not surprisingly, has been solid. But DeChambeau’s iron play is still a little off, like it was at the Masters, and he isn’t happy with his chipping (he lost almost two strokes Thursday and was a little better Friday).
“You have to have your irons super precise this week, which we all know how good my wedges are, so that makes it a little bit more difficult for me,” DeChambeau said. “That’s OK, though.
“It’s a great test. I’ve just got to have my putting a little more on and keep playing the way I am. It easily could be 7, 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So just keep moving along, and I think a 65, 64 is out there. I almost shot it out there today and I definitely saw it out there, I just didn’t accomplish it.”
Uggetti: There are plenty of big names lurking outside the top 10, and when a tournament still seems relatively wide open, as this one does, it could be anyone’s game.
Still, even with a course like Quail Hollow, I suspect the cream will continue to rise to the top. And despite his recent struggles at some major championships, perhaps no one is as good at doing that than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has put together two quiet, but extremely solid rounds of golf and is sitting at 2 under, six shots behind Vegas, heading into the weekend.
“I think I’m in good position,” Rahm said. “Adding to the fact that I feel like I’m getting better, more confident with the swing. I made a lot of good swings out there today and gave myself plenty of chances.”
The discourse around Rahm at the majors has revolved around his inability to get into contention since winning the 2023 Masters, but it’s easy to forget that back then, he looked to be one of the most consistent and dominant players in the game. He continues to rack up top-10 finishes on LIV, however you want to measure those, and it would not surprise me to see him making a run at the top this weekend. He could use it.
How Far Back is Too Far to Still Be in Contention?
Uggetti: Is it too much to say that anyone who made the cut could make a run? Probably, but this setup, like many PGAs in the past, has kept the leaderboard pretty close together. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players such as Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) could go low and make a run. As far as I’m concerned, the true leader in the tournament right now is Scheffler at 5 under, but that also means that Scheffler would need to stall out and that doesn’t seem likely either. Players such as Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy are going to need to shoot in the mid-to-low 60s to have any shot, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
A more levelheaded opinion is that 1 under is probably too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven shots behind the leader offers up a tall task.
Who is Your Pick Right Now Heading into the Weekend?
Schlabach: I picked Scottie after the first round, and he was one stroke better Friday with a 3-under 68, which was good enough to leave him in a tie for fifth. He improved in just about every metric in the second round, except for driving (six of 14 fairways hit).
“I like the position I’m in going into the weekend,” Scheffler said. “Obviously, I wish I was a little bit further up the leaderboard. I think I got a lot out of my game the last couple days. I felt like, as the round went on, my swing continued to get better, and I was able to hit some key shots down the stretch to give myself some opportunities. Looking forward to the weekend.”
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open winner, is the only other golfer in the top 10 who has won a major. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens aren’t holding off Scheffler when he makes a charge.
Uggetti: Scheffler feels inevitable, especially given that he still hasn’t had a round where he’s played like the unquestioned No. 1 player in the world. Part of me, however, keeps coming back to Bryson. He has been far from perfect this week and he’s clearly still fighting his approach game (77th in the field), but it also seems like he’s due for a round where everything clicks. The drive remains an unbelievable weapon, he just needs to keep it in the fairway more often to have a chance.
What Player Missing the Cut Was the Biggest Disappointment?
Schlabach: There are plenty of solid choices because many of the world’s best golfers, Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over) won’t be at Quail Hollow for the weekend.
I’d probably go with JT because I thought he had a real chance to make some noise this week. He won three weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and captured his first major at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.
Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the first round) and 16 of 36 greens. He made nine birdies but had far too many mistakes, too.
Uggetti: I’ll go with Aberg. He had been up and down coming into this week, but it still seemed like Quail Hollow would set up well for his game. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach. The sample size is small, and perhaps the bar has been set too high too quickly, but that’s now two missed cuts in two PGA Championship appearances for Aberg.
Originally Written by: Mark Schlabach,Paolo Uggetti
