FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?

SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7

Montana State’s Quest for Glory: A 40-Year Journey to the FCS Title Game

On December 15, 1984, Montana State achieved a remarkable feat that has been etched in the annals of college football history. The Bobcats, under the leadership of Dave Arnold, completed a worst-to-first run that still resonates with fans today. Just a season after enduring a dismal 1-10 record, the Bobcats began the 1984 season with a modest 2-2 record. However, they soon found their rhythm, igniting an offensive firestorm that saw them defeat a top-10 Boise State team in October and pull off a stunning upset against Fresno State, winning 35-31 late in the season.

Entering the 12-team playoff as the No. 3 seed, Montana State showcased their prowess by defeating Arkansas State and Rhode Island with a combined margin of 29 points. The Bobcats then unleashed their full potential in the title game against Louisiana Tech. Quarterback Kelly Bradley was instrumental, throwing for 334 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense held Tech scoreless until the final minute, securing a 19-6 victory.

Fast forward 40 years, and Montana State is once again on the brink of glory. On Monday night in Frisco, Texas, the Bobcats have their best opportunity yet to capture a second championship ring. Standing in their way is the formidable North Dakota State, often regarded as the ultimate final boss in FCS football.

North Dakota State, after relinquishing control of the FCS to rival South Dakota State for a couple of years, has reasserted its dominance. The Bison defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024 and are back in the final for the 11th time in 14 years. They have been a thorn in Montana State’s side, knocking them out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2023. With eight titles between 2011 and 2019, the Bison are now eyeing their second title of the 2020s.

So, the question looms: Will we witness another North Dakota State coronation, or will Montana State channel the spirit of 1984?

How They Got Here

No. 1 Montana State Bobcats

  • Record: 15-0
  • SP+ rankings: first overall, first on offense, second on defense
  • Key regular-season results: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11
  • Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17

Montana State has been a force to be reckoned with throughout the season, leaving no doubt about their status as the best team in FCS. Despite a couple of defensive touchdowns conceded to New Mexico, the Bobcats dominated statistically, amassing 567 total yards to New Mexico’s 324, and scored 21 fourth-quarter points to clinch their season opener.

Since then, they’ve been nearly unstoppable. Their only close call against an FCS opponent came against UC Davis, where they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead before the Aggies scored three late touchdowns to narrow the gap. No team has had the ball with a chance to take a late lead on Montana State since that New Mexico game. Even South Dakota, who played an excellent game in the semifinals, couldn’t get closer than 14 points down the stretch.

No. 2 North Dakota State Bison

  • Record: 13-2
  • SP+ rankings: third overall, second on offense, fifth on defense
  • Key regular-season results: lost to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, lost to South Dakota 29-28
  • Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21

North Dakota State faced a tougher schedule and came within six points of an unbeaten record. They led Colorado at halftime but couldn’t overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns in the second half, falling just short on a game-ending Hail Mary.

The Bison had to survive an early thriller against East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice in the last two minutes. Once their defense found its rhythm, NDSU started looking like the powerhouse they are known to be. Over their past 11 games, only three have been close: the two wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.

Can NDSU Tame Tommy Mellott?

Montana State’s offense has been electrifying, led by quarterback Tommy Mellott, who has been a standout performer since his first collegiate game in 2021. Mellott combines ultra-efficient passing with fearless rushing, often putting his body on the line to get the job done. Despite injuries over the years, Mellott has consistently delivered remarkable performances, including five career 150-yard rushing games and five career 225-yard passing games.

In 2024, Mellott and his supporting cast have produced the most brilliant offense in FCS. Running backs Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,494 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott adding 915 yards and 14 more scores. Mellott has completed 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He has three go-to receivers: Taco Dowler, Ty McCullouch, and tight end Rohan Jones, who have combined for 100 catches, 1,494 yards, and 23 scores.

Montana State’s offensive line, despite starting three sophomores, boasts an abundance of talent and size, averaging 6-4, 305 pounds across the line. The Bobcats average 41.3 points per game and haven’t been held under 31 all season. South Dakota managed to force four straight punts in the semifinals, but it was too little too late as MSU had already scored on five of its first six drives.

On the defensive side, NDSU’s defense took some time to find its footing in 2024. They allowed at least 24 points and 367 yards in three of their first four games. However, in the 11 games since, they’ve allowed only 15.7 points and 299.1 yards per game, even against playoff teams.

Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques, and Kody Huisman have been formidable up front, combining for 24 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, and 12 QB hurries. Linebacker Logan Kopp is a tackling machine, and the Bison’s depth is their biggest strength. Nine NDSU defenders have recorded at least four tackles for loss, and they aren’t likely to give up easy yards, even to Mellott and his dynamic offense.

A Mistake-Free Bison Attack

While NDSU’s offense may not be the most explosive in their storied history, they excel in mistake-free efficiency. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and they’ve committed an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 games. The line is still massive, and the backs are hard to bring down, with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance leading the charge.

Quarterback Cam Miller, the reigning Missouri Valley offensive player of the year, will play in his 67th career game on Monday night. While his upside may not match that of past NDSU quarterbacks like Carson Wentz or Trey Lance, Miller’s experience and poise make him a formidable opponent.

NDSU’s special teams are also a threat, with Jackson Williams and TK Marshall capable of making big plays in the return game.

Montana State’s defense, led by Brody Grebe, McCade O’Reilly, and Rylan Ortt, has improved since their 2021 title game loss to NDSU. They are bigger and more formidable, with a focus on stopping the run. While teams have had some success passing against them, the Bobcats’ pass rush is relentless, recording 36 sacks among 85 tackles for loss this season.

Projecting the Title Game

Both Montana State’s Brent Vigen and NDSU’s Tim Polasek have deep ties to the University of Craig Bohl, having coached under him at NDSU and Wyoming. Their paths have crossed frequently, and every time these teams have met in the playoffs, NDSU has come out on top.

Vigen has been building toward this moment for four years, and it feels like Montana State’s time to break through. However, North Dakota State’s dynasty is not easily toppled, and they have a knack for wrecking opponents’ plans.

Three years ago, Montana State wasn’t ready, but this time, it might be a different story.

ESPN Bet projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/under 56.5)

Original source article rewritten by our AI can be read here.
Originally Written by: Bill Connelly

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