Eagles The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, are on a quest for a three-peat. However, they’ll have to overcome a formidable Eagles team that has lost only three games all season. The Eagles have shown remarkable consistency, with their only losses coming from dropped passes that could have sealed victories. This Eagles squad is arguably better than the one the Chiefs defeated two years ago and even more intimidating than the 49ers teams Kansas City faced in Super Bowls LIV and LVIII. While the Chiefs may not be the most dominant team we’ve seen, they are certainly the craftiest. Their 2024 season was marked by a series of nail-biting victories, often decided by the slimmest of margins. From fourth-down stops to blocked kicks, the Chiefs have found ways to win, culminating in a 15th consecutive victory in games decided by seven points or fewer in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills. On the other side, the Eagles have had a stellar offseason, bolstering their roster and emerging as the better team on paper. A key player to watch is Saquon Barkley, who has been a standout performer this season. If the Chiefs hope to secure another title, they’ll need to find a way to contain Barkley. Meet the Teams Kansas City Chiefs Coach: Andy Reid Andy Reid brings a wealth of playoff and Super Bowl experience to the table. With a postseason record of 28-16 and a Super Bowl record of 3-2, Reid has been instrumental in the Chiefs’ success. Despite facing challenges such as injuries and defensive inconsistencies, Reid has guided the Chiefs to the brink of a third consecutive championship. How did they get here? The Chiefs’ journey to a 17-2 record, including two playoff victories, was no easy feat. They won 11 regular-season games and the AFC Championship Game against the Bills by narrow margins, often relying on a mix of skill and luck. A blocked field goal in Week 10 against the Broncos was a testament to their ability to make crucial plays when it mattered most. Philadelphia Eagles Coach: Nick Sirianni Nick Sirianni has made history as the first coach in the Super Bowl era to reach the playoffs in each of his first four seasons while making multiple Super Bowl appearances. With a regular-season record of 48-20, Sirianni has the third-highest winning percentage by a head coach in the modern era. His leadership has been pivotal in the Eagles’ journey to the Super Bowl. How did they get here? The Eagles’ season began with a shaky 2-2 start, but they quickly found their stride. By focusing on Saquon Barkley and making strategic adjustments during their Week 5 bye, the Eagles embarked on a 10-game winning streak, finishing the regular season with a 14-3 record. Their dominant rushing game and defense earned them the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and they secured their Super Bowl spot with a decisive victory over the Commanders in the NFC title game. Quarterback Breakdown Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Despite a “down year” by his standards, Mahomes remains a formidable force. He ranked eighth with a 68 QBR in the regular season, but his postseason performance has been stellar, with a 79 QBR. Mahomes’ decision-making and ability to find open players make him a key asset for the Chiefs. Strength: Decision-making. Mahomes excels in critical situations, ranking first on third down with a 90 QBR. His ability to scramble efficiently and find open targets is unmatched. Weakness: Accuracy. Surprisingly, Mahomes has struggled with accuracy, recording a minus-2 completion percentage over expectation. Despite this, his overall performance remains impressive. Jalen Hurts, Eagles Jalen Hurts has been a key player for the Eagles, leading one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. His 65 QBR ranks 10th, with his running ability being a significant asset. Strength: Runs. Hurts’ ability to execute designed runs and scrambles has been a game-changer for the Eagles, ranking second in total EPA generated on runs and scrambles. Weakness: Sack avoidance. Despite playing behind a strong offensive line, Hurts has taken sacks on 9.4% of his dropbacks, highlighting an area for improvement. Projecting the Passing Box Score As we gear up for the Super Bowl, it’s essential to consider the passing dynamics of both teams. Mahomes’ quick throws have been successful, but the Eagles’ defense has been effective in limiting yards per attempt. In the red zone, Reid’s strategic play-calling could be a game-changer. Meanwhile, Hurts has improved against the blitz and has become more accurate, but he may need to rely on his arm to keep the Eagles in the game. Biggest Questions Can the Chiefs defend the Eagles’ tush push? The Chiefs have shown promise in defending similar plays, as evidenced by their performance against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. However, Hurts has successfully executed the tush push against Kansas City in the past, making it a critical area to watch. What do the Eagles need from receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith? The Eagles will need efficient passing from Hurts, similar to his performance in the NFC Championship Game. With the Chiefs likely focusing on Barkley, Brown and Smith will play crucial roles in the Eagles’ offensive strategy. Keys to a Chiefs Win Positional advantage: Quarterback Mahomes’ ability to perform in critical moments and extend plays with his legs gives the Chiefs a significant advantage. His instincts and success on third downs make him a formidable opponent for the Eagles’ defense. Chiefs’ X factor: Jaylen Watson, CB Watson’s return to the lineup has bolstered the Chiefs’ defense. His ability to shut down opposing receivers will be crucial in limiting the Eagles’ passing game. Rookie to watch: Xavier Worthy, WR Worthy has emerged as a key target for the Chiefs’ offense. His speed and dynamic abilities will be essential in challenging the Eagles’ secondary. Keys to an Eagles Win Positional advantage: Secondary The Eagles’ secondary has been exceptional, allowing a league-low in passing yards per game. Their ability to create matchup advantages against the Chiefs’ receivers will be crucial. Eagles’ X factor: Nolan Smith Jr., LB Smith’s development has been a game-changer for the Eagles’ pass rush. His ability to pressure Mahomes will be vital in disrupting the Chiefs’ offensive rhythm. Rookie to watch: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Mitchell’s man coverage skills and playmaking ability will be essential in countering the Chiefs’ passing attack. His performance could be a deciding factor in the Eagles’ defensive strategy. What ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) Says ESPN’s FPI gives the Eagles a 56.1% chance of winning, favoring them by an average of 2.2 points. This matchup features two top-10 teams in FPI, with the Eagles ranked fifth and the Chiefs sixth. The Eagles’ defense ranks first, while the Chiefs’ offense is seventh. Who Wins the Game? Out of 67 experts, 41 (61.2%) picked the Chiefs to win, while 26 (38.8%) favored the Eagles. The most common score predictions were 27-24, 27-23, and 31-28. Who Will Win Super Bowl MVP? Patrick Mahomes is the favorite among 67 experts, with 37 (55.2%) picking him for MVP. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts are also strong contenders, with Barkley being a near-unstoppable force in the postseason. Stats to Know Mahomes has four straight playoff victories when trailing at the start of the fourth quarter, the longest streak by a quarterback all time. Chris Jones ranks third in pass rush win rate among interior defenders. The Chiefs have won nine straight postseason games, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. Hurts has the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the postseason (nine). Barkley needs 30 yards to surpass Terrell Davis’ 1998 record for the most rushing yards in a single season. Bold Predictions Worthy will finish as the top wide receiver in receiving yards. His speed and versatility will be key for the Chiefs, especially against Mitchell. Hollywood Brown will score the game-winning TD. Brown will have a big day, clinching Kansas City’s three-peat with a last-second touchdown. The Eagles will win convincingly. Despite the Chiefs’ knack for close wins, the Eagles have a solid edge in offensive and defensive metrics. Barkley will rush for 125-plus yards and earn MVP honors. His second-half performance will be crucial in wearing down the Chiefs’ defense. The deciding play will come from the foot of one team’s kicker. A field goal could be the difference in this tightly contested game. Who is In, and Who is Out? The Chiefs have listed wide receiver Skyy Moore as doubtful, but the rest of the roster is expected to be available. The Eagles are optimistic about the availability of key players like Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson, with only Nakobe Dean likely to miss the game. What to Know About the Officiating Ron Torbert will officiate the Super Bowl, having previously worked Super Bowl LVI. His crew was known for throwing the third-most flags in the regular season, but they took a back seat in his first Super Bowl appearance. How to Bet Super Bowl LIX The current line from ESPN BET Sportsbook has the Chiefs favored by 1 point, with an over/under of 48.5. Underdogs have a strong track record in recent Super Bowls, and the points total has hit the over in the Chiefs’ past two appearances. Who is Playing the Halftime Show? Kendrick Lamar will headline the halftime show, with special guest SZA. Lamar, a 22-time Grammy winner, is known for his groundbreaking music and will bring his unique style to the Super Bowl stage. Super Bowl FAQs Who has won the most Super Bowl rings? Which NFL team has the most Super Bowl wins? Which NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl? Who are the winningest NFL coaches of all time? 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